• If you are wondering whether nCino is starting to look attractively priced or just risky after a rough stretch, this article walks through what the current share price might be telling you.
• The stock last closed at US$15.81, with returns of 3.3% decline over 7 days, 35.4% decline over 30 days, 35.9% decline year to date, 49.2% decline over 1 year and 40.5% decline over 3 years, while the 5 year return sits at 76.7% decline.
• Recent news around nCino has focused on its role as a cloud banking platform provider and how banks and financial institutions use its software to manage lending, onboarding and other workflows. This context helps frame why the stock can be sensitive to sentiment around software spending, bank technology budgets and broader views on fintech adoption.
• On our valuation checks, nCino scores 3 out of 6. You can see the detailed breakdown in our valuation score. Next, we will look at how methods like DCF and multiples compare, and then finish with a way to tie all of these valuation signals together.

Approach 1: nCino Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes projected future cash flows, then discounts them back to today using a required return, to estimate what the business might be worth right now.

For nCino, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about $60.5 million. Analysts provide cash flow estimates out to 2028, with Simply Wall St extending those projections further. In this model, free cash flow is projected to reach $274.2 million in 2035, with interim years such as 2026, 2027 and 2028 sitting in a range between roughly $74.9 million and $147.8 million. All figures are in US$ and are based on a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model that shifts from analyst forecasts to extrapolated estimates over time.

When all those future cash flows are discounted back to today and aggregated, the model estimates an intrinsic value of about $29.74 per share. Against the recent share price of $15.81, this implies the stock trades at roughly a 46.8% discount, which in this DCF view indicates it may be undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests nCino is undervalued by 46.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: nCino Price vs Sales

For a business like nCino that is being evaluated on its revenue base, the P/S ratio is a useful way to compare what investors are paying for each dollar of sales, especially when earnings are not the primary focus.

Growth expectations and risk still matter here, because higher growth or more resilient revenue can justify a higher P/S multiple, while more uncertainty or lower growth usually points to a lower, more conservative range.

nCino currently trades on a P/S ratio of 3.09x, compared with the Software industry average of 3.46x and a peer group average of 2.89x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 2.56x, which reflects what the P/S multiple might look like after adjusting for factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison, because it tries to align the multiple with nCino’s specific characteristics rather than broad group averages. Set against the current 3.09x P/S, the 2.56x Fair Ratio suggests the shares are priced somewhat higher than this customised benchmark.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your nCino Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, where you describe your story for nCino by setting your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins. You then link that story to a financial forecast and fair value, and use Simply Wall St’s Community page to compare your fair value to the current price to help decide whether to buy or sell. The Narrative automatically updates when fresh information like news or earnings arrives. This is why one investor might build a more cautious nCino Narrative anchored around a US$16 fair value and another might build a more optimistic one closer to US$41, both using the same data but drawing different conclusions.

Do you think there's more to the story for nCino? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.