• If you are wondering whether Amprius Technologies at around US$17.22 still offers value after a big run, the answer starts with understanding what the current price is really implying.
• The stock shows a mixed recent pattern, with a 7.6% gain over the last week, a 7.4% decline over the last month, a 97.0% return year to date, and a very large return of around 7x over the past year.
• Recent coverage has focused on Amprius Technologies as a high growth name in advanced battery technology, which helps explain why the share price has seen sharp moves and rising investor attention. At the same time, commentary has also highlighted execution and funding risks typical for companies working to scale new battery technologies.
• Despite all that excitement, the company currently scores 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St’s valuation checks, as shown by its valuation score. It is therefore worth walking through the usual valuation tools first before looking at a more complete way to think about what this stock might be worth.

Amprius Technologies scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Amprius Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes projected future cash flows, then discounts them back to today to estimate what the business could be worth right now.

For Amprius Technologies, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of about $48.4 million. Analysts provide specific free cash flow estimates through 2029, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further to 2035. Within those projections, free cash flow in 2029 is expected at $42 million, with interim years such as 2026 to 2028 ranging from $9 million to $60.5 million in estimated free cash flow before discounting.

After discounting all these projected cash flows back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $2.63 per share. At a current share price around $17.22, the model suggests the stock is trading well above this DCF estimate, with the implied difference indicating it is 554.6% higher than the model’s intrinsic value per share.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amprius Technologies may be overvalued by 554.6%. Discover 58 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Amprius Technologies Price vs Sales

For early stage or unprofitable companies, earnings based metrics like P/E are less useful, so investors often look at revenue based measures such as the price to sales, or P/S, ratio. The idea is simple: you are asking how many dollars you are paying for each dollar of current sales.

What counts as a normal P/S depends a lot on how quickly a company is expected to grow and how risky that growth looks. Higher growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually point to a lower one.

Amprius Technologies currently trades on a P/S of 32.32x. That compares with an Electrical industry average P/S of 2.28x and a peer group average of 16.09x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for the stock is 4.46x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/S might be given its growth outlook, margins, industry, market cap and risk profile. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for those company specific factors. Set against the current 32.32x P/S, the 4.46x Fair Ratio points to the shares trading well above that model based level.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Amprius Technologies Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you connect your view of Amprius Technologies’ story to a specific forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then to a Fair Value that you can compare with the current price to help decide whether the stock looks expensive or cheap based on your own assumptions.

Each Narrative is built like a storyline backed by numbers. You can see, for example, one investor anchoring on a Fair Value of US$12.25 with assumptions that include 101% revenue growth, a 25% profit margin and a future P/E of 35x. Another investor may work with a Fair Value of US$18.00 using 62.30% revenue growth, a 10% profit margin and a future P/E of about 125x. As new information such as earnings, contracts or guidance is added to the platform, these Narratives can be refreshed so you can see how updated expectations translate into a revised Fair Value versus the live share price.

For Amprius Technologies however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Amprius Technologies Narratives:

Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$19.25 per share.

Implied pricing versus this fair value: the last close at US$17.22 sits about 10.5% below the narrative fair value.

Revenue growth assumption: 72.21% a year.

• Analysts in this bullish view see strong demand for Amprius batteries across drones, satellites, light EVs, robotics, and eVTOL applications supporting high growth and improving profitability.
• They tie that growth to manufacturing scale up, contract manufacturing capacity in Korea and the U.S., and government backed programs that may support automation and new capacity.
• The fair value of US$19.25 reflects these higher growth and margin expectations, using a future P/E of 78.34x and a discount rate of 9.26%.

Fair value in this more cautious narrative: US$12.25 per share.

Implied pricing versus this fair value: the last close at US$17.22 sits about 40.7% above the narrative fair value.

Revenue growth assumption: 101% a year.

• This author builds in very fast revenue growth from an estimated US$60 million to US$70 million in 2025 toward a range of US$315 million to US$368 million by 2028.
• They pair that with an assumed gross margin range of 18% to 25% based on recent performance and benchmarks from other battery producers.
• The fair value of US$12.25 reflects a view that even with hyper growth and a future P/E of 35x, the current share price is rich relative to the earnings power assumed in this scenario.

Both narratives sit on the same company data but reach very different conclusions on what justifies today’s price. The key for you is to decide which set of assumptions feels closer to how you see Amprius Technologies executing on growth, margins, and dilution over the next few years. Then adjust those inputs to build a version of the story that matches your own risk tolerance and time horizon. See what the community is saying about Amprius Technologies

Do you think there's more to the story for Amprius Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.