• Investors may be wondering if Amprius Technologies stock is still priced fairly after its recent run, or if expectations have already gone too far into the future.
• At a last close of US$20.85, the stock has delivered 36.3% over the past week, 5.9% over the past month and 138.6% year to date, with a very large 1-year return of around 7x.
• Recent headlines have focused on Amprius Technologies as a high growth battery technology stock, which has drawn more attention from both institutional and retail investors. Coverage has highlighted its role in next generation applications, which helps explain why sentiment has shifted quickly around the stock.
• In this context, Amprius Technologies currently scores 2 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks. The next step is to look at what different valuation methods imply, and then consider an even broader way of thinking about value that ties the numbers back to the full investment story.

Amprius Technologies scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Amprius Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes expected future cash flows and discounts them back to today to estimate what the entire business might be worth in present value terms.

For Amprius Technologies, the latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $71.11 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections used in Simply Wall St's 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model range from a loss of $30.07 million in 2026 to positive free cash flow of $437.02 million by 2035, with $60.84 million projected for 2028. All of these figures are in $ and remain well below 1b, so they are discussed in millions.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back and combined with a terminal value, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $27.64 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $20.85, this implies the stock trades at a 24.6% discount to that DCF estimate, which suggests the shares may be pricing in more cautious assumptions than the model.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amprius Technologies is undervalued by 24.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 46 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Amprius Technologies Price vs Sales

For profitable companies, simple valuation multiples are a quick way to see what investors are paying for each dollar of business performance. Price based on sales, earnings or book value can all be useful, but for younger or less profitable companies, P/S is often the cleaner lens because it focuses on revenue rather than current profit levels.

Growth expectations and risk usually influence how high a “normal” or “fair” multiple should be, with faster, more predictable growth often justifying a higher figure and higher risk pointing to a lower one. Amprius Technologies currently trades at a P/S ratio of 32.71x, compared with an Electrical industry average of 2.75x and a peer average of 19.67x. On these simple comparisons, the stock sits well above both its sector and closer peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further. It estimates what P/S might be reasonable, given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk. For Amprius Technologies, the Fair Ratio is 7.18x, which is materially lower than the current 32.71x. On this basis, the shares screen as expensive relative to what the Fair Ratio suggests.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Amprius Technologies Narrative

Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives help you attach a clear story about Amprius Technologies to the numbers by linking your view on its future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value to a forecast. This allows you to compare that fair value with the current share price to frame buy or sell decisions, and then update that view automatically as new earnings or news arrive. This is exactly what Simply Wall St offers on the Community page where, for example, one investor might build an optimistic Amprius view around higher revenue growth, a 25% profit margin and a P/E of 35x with a fair value of US$19.25. Another investor might focus on risks, slower growth, a 10.82% margin, a much higher assumed future P/E of 107.71x and a fair value of US$18.00. This gives you two very different but transparent Narratives to compare against your own expectations.

Do you think there's more to the story for Amprius Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.