• Wondering whether Amprius Technologies at US$21.40 is still worth your attention after a rapid run up, or if the price has already moved ahead of the fundamentals?
• The stock has returned 8.7% over the last week, 33.8% over the last month, 144.9% year to date, and a very large 1 year return of 822.4%, which puts recent trading firmly on most investors' radar.
• Recent coverage has focused on Amprius Technologies as interest in battery and electrification related companies has increased, with the stock appearing more frequently in growth and technology themed discussions. This context helps explain why sentiment around the stock has shifted and why price moves have been so sharp.
• Despite this, Amprius Technologies currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6. The next step is to look at how different valuation methods assess the stock today, and then consider an even deeper way to think about what that means for you as an investor.

Amprius Technologies scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Amprius Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today. For Amprius Technologies, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections in US$.

The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of approximately $48.4 million. Analysts and extrapolated estimates suggest free cash flow turning positive in the coming years, with projected free cash flow reaching $23.2 million in 2035. These projections combine analyst inputs for earlier years and Simply Wall St extrapolations for the later period.

After discounting these projected cash flows, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $2.42 per share. Compared with the current share price of $21.40, the model output implies the stock is very significantly above this estimate, with an indicated overvaluation of about 783.4%.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amprius Technologies may be overvalued by 783.4%. Discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Amprius Technologies Price vs Sales

For companies that are not yet consistently profitable, focusing on revenue can be more useful, which is why the P/S ratio is often used instead of P/E. It lets you gauge how much investors are paying for each dollar of sales, regardless of current earnings.

What counts as a "normal" or "fair" P/S ratio often reflects how investors view the company’s growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can support a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually points to a lower one.

Amprius Technologies currently trades on a P/S of 40.16x. This is well above the Electrical industry average of 2.92x and the peer group average of 18.95x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Amprius Technologies, at 5.03x, is a proprietary estimate of what the P/S might be based on factors such as earnings growth, profit margin, industry, market cap and key risks. Because it blends these company specific inputs, it offers a more tailored reference point than a simple comparison with peers or the industry.

Compared with this Fair Ratio of 5.03x, the current P/S of 40.16x indicates the stock is trading at a much richer level than this model implies.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Amprius Technologies Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation, and on Simply Wall St this is done using Narratives, which let you connect your own story about Amprius Technologies to a set of revenue, margin and earnings forecasts. You can then turn that into a Fair Value and compare it with the current price to help frame buy or sell timing. This view can be kept updated automatically as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build an optimistic Amprius Technologies Narrative that supports a Fair Value of US$19.25 based on higher growth and a future P/E of 78.34x. Another might build a more cautious Narrative that points to a Fair Value of US$12.25 or US$17.00 using lower growth, different profit margins and discount rates. All of these assumptions are visible and easy to explore within the Community page used by millions of investors.

Do you think there's more to the story for Amprius Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.