If you are wondering whether Century Aluminum is still reasonably priced after its strong run, it helps to step back and look at what the recent numbers and news might be telling you about value and risk.

The share price closed at US$62.24, with a 7 day return of a 7.0% decline, a 30 day return of 27.1%, a year to date return of 52.0%, and a 1 year return of 299.2%. Recent moves have been large enough to change how some investors may be thinking about upside and downside.

Recent coverage around the stock has focused on its sharp price performance and what that might imply about expectations already reflected in the market. This gives important context when you are weighing whether current levels still make sense. This article was prompted to provide evergreen analysis that steps away from the headlines and focuses instead on how different valuation tools line up against the current share price.

On Simply Wall St's 6 point valuation framework, Century Aluminum scores 4 out of 6, and you can see the breakdown in the valuation score. Next comes a closer look at what traditional valuation approaches say about the stock today and how a more complete view of value can add an extra layer to your decision making.

Approach 1: Century Aluminum Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back into today’s dollars.

For Century Aluminum, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about US$83.8 million. Based on analyst inputs for the earlier years and Simply Wall St extrapolations after that, projected free cash flow reaches about US$2.0 billion in 2035, with interim estimates such as US$970.1 million in 2026 and US$1,223.8 million in 2028.

When these forecast cash flows are discounted back using the DCF method, the estimated intrinsic value comes out at around US$270.94 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$62.24, this model implies the shares trade at roughly a 77.0% discount to that intrinsic value. This highlights a wide gap between the cash flow based estimate and the current market price.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Century Aluminum is undervalued by 77.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 60 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Century Aluminum Price vs Sales

For companies that are generating revenue but where earnings can be volatile, the P/S ratio is often a useful way to compare what you are paying for each dollar of sales. Investors tend to accept a higher or lower P/S depending on what they expect for future growth and how much risk they see in the business.

Century Aluminum currently trades on a P/S of 2.44x. This sits slightly below the Metals and Mining industry average P/S of 2.64x, and above the peer group average of 0.74x. So, on simple comparisons, the stock is priced higher than its peers but not far from the broader industry level.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Century Aluminum is 1.41x. This is an estimate of what the P/S might be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. Because it brings these elements together, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than just lining the stock up against peers or the industry alone. Comparing 2.44x to the Fair Ratio of 1.41x suggests the shares are trading at a richer level than that fundamentals based reference point.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Century Aluminum Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives let you attach a clear story about Century Aluminum to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, then link that to a Fair Value you can compare with the current price on Simply Wall St’s Community page where millions of investors share their views. For example, one Century Aluminum Narrative might lean toward the higher analyst case with revenue growing 13.1% a year, margins reaching 25.5% and earnings of US$930.0 million by 2029. Another might reflect the lower case with 9.5% annual revenue growth, 19.9% margins and earnings of US$659.1 million. As news, tariffs, Oklahoma smelter updates or earnings reports come through, these Narratives refresh automatically so you can quickly see whether your Fair Value still supports holding, adding, or reducing exposure at today’s price.

For Century Aluminum however we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Century Aluminum Narratives:

Fair value in this Narrative: US$66.00 per share

Implied discount to this fair value versus the recent US$62.24 share price: about 5.7% undervalued

Analyst revenue growth input used in this Narrative: 10.79% a year

• Analysts model revenue reaching about US$3.4b and earnings of US$1.0b by 2029, with profit margins rising from 1.6% to 30.4%.
• The thesis leans on Section 232 tariffs, Section 45X manufacturing tax credits and the restart or expansion of U.S. smelting capacity, including Mt. Holly and a planned new smelter.
• Key risks include possible changes to tariffs or incentives, execution risks around major projects and exposure to raw material and power costs, especially for energy intensive operations.

Fair value in this Narrative: US$61.00 per share

Implied premium to this fair value versus the recent US$62.24 share price: about 2.0% overvalued

Analyst revenue growth input used in this Narrative: 13.07% a year

• Bullish analysts in this Narrative frame assume revenue of about US$3.7b and earnings of US$930.0m by 2029, with the P/E moving from 56.6x today to 8.1x on those earnings.
• The view leans on higher volumes from Mt. Holly and a new U.S. greenfield smelter, tight inventories and demand for billets in U.S. and European markets, supported by Section 232 tariffs and Section 45X credits.
• Risks focus on policy changes to tariffs or tax credits, capital intensity and timing of large projects, power cost and currency exposure and the possibility that cash flows do not support future buybacks or targeted net debt levels.

If you want to see these stories in full and test which one lines up best with your own expectations for tariffs, new smelter plans and future cash flows, head over to the Community Narratives for Century Aluminum and compare the detailed assumptions side by side.See what the community is saying about Century Aluminum

Do you think there's more to the story for Century Aluminum? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.