• Investors may be wondering whether Curtiss-Wright still offers good value after a strong share price performance, or if the current price has moved ahead of what the underlying business might justify.
• The stock last closed at US$742.89, with returns of 6.7% over 7 days, 6.3% over 30 days, 29.8% year to date and 105.5% over 1 year. These figures naturally raise questions about how much of the company’s story may already be reflected in the price.
• Recent attention on Curtiss-Wright has centered on its role in capital goods and aerospace and defense, with investors focusing on how the company is positioned in those areas. That context helps explain why the stock has attracted interest related to long term contracts, defense exposure and infrastructure projects.
• Despite this, Curtiss-Wright currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6. It can therefore be useful to walk through traditional valuation approaches first and then consider a more rounded framework for assessing value later in the article.

Curtiss-Wright scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Curtiss-Wright Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting the company’s future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s dollars.

For Curtiss-Wright, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $571.2 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections suggest free cash flow reaching about $948.4 million in 2035, with interim estimates such as $588.3 million in 2026 and $723 million in 2029. Simply Wall St extends analyst estimates beyond the available horizon to build a ten year cash flow path.

After discounting those projected cash flows, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $426.71 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $742.89, this implies the stock is 74.1% overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Curtiss-Wright may be overvalued by 74.1%. Discover 44 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Curtiss-Wright Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Curtiss-Wright, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It ties the share price directly to the business’s current earning power, which many investors use as a quick anchor for valuation.

What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on expectations for future growth and the level of risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower one.

Curtiss-Wright currently trades on a P/E of 56.62x, compared with the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 37.26x and a peer average of 50.51x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Curtiss-Wright is 31.30x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.

Because the Fair Ratio is tailored to Curtiss-Wright rather than being a broad group average, it can be more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons. With the current P/E of 56.62x sitting well above the Fair Ratio of 31.30x, the stock screens as expensive on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Curtiss-Wright Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are worth introducing as a simple way for you to link Curtiss-Wright’s story to a financial forecast and then to a fair value that you can compare with the current price.

A Narrative on Simply Wall St’s Community page is essentially your view of the company written into the numbers, where your expectations for future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value are made explicit instead of staying as a vague opinion.

Because Narratives are updated when new information such as earnings releases, contract wins or guidance changes are added to the platform, you can see how your fair value moves relative to the live Curtiss-Wright share price and use that gap, whether positive or negative, to help decide whether the stock currently fits your plan.

For Curtiss-Wright, one investor might align with a more cautious Narrative that points to a Fair Value near US$624.83, while another might prefer a more optimistic Narrative closer to US$780.00. Having both side by side makes it easier for you to choose which story and valuation assumptions you think are more reasonable.

For Curtiss-Wright, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Curtiss-Wright Narratives:

Fair value in this bullish Narrative: US$780.00 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: 4.8% over the Narrative fair value

Assumed future revenue growth: 9.12% a year

• Assumes Curtiss-Wright benefits from long term defense and nuclear infrastructure contracts, supported by policies that favor energy security and decarbonization.
• Builds in higher future profit margins and earnings, alongside ongoing share repurchases and a discount rate of 7.6%.
• Requires confidence that by 2029 revenue reaches about US$4.5b, earnings reach about US$741.5m and the stock trades on a P/E a little above 45x.

Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: about US$711.43 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: 4.4% over the Narrative fair value

Assumed future revenue growth: 7.73% a year

• Anchors on analyst consensus style assumptions for revenue growth, earnings and profit margins, using a discount rate of about 7.7%.
• Counts on steady defense and nuclear demand plus continued buybacks, but with lower growth and a lower future P/E than the bullish Narrative.
• Requires comfort that by 2028 revenue can reach about US$4.0b, earnings about US$593.3m and the stock trades on a P/E close to 39.5x.

Do you think there's more to the story for Curtiss-Wright? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.