• Wondering whether Intuitive Machines stock still offers value after its recent volatility, or if you might be turning up late to the story?
• The stock closed at US$24.11, with a 4.9% decline over the last 7 days, a 6.1% gain over 30 days, a 34.8% return year to date, and a 157.9% return over the past year.
• Recent headlines around Intuitive Machines have kept the stock in focus, with investors paying closer attention to how its projects translate into long term potential. This context helps explain why returns over 3 years sit at 192.2%, even as shorter term moves remain choppy.
• Right now the company scores 2 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks, which you can see in detail through its valuation score. Next, the article will walk through standard valuation methods before ending with a more comprehensive way to judge whether that score tells the whole story.

Intuitive Machines scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Intuitive Machines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimated future cash flows and discounts them back into today’s dollars to arrive at an approximate intrinsic value per share.

For Intuitive Machines, the latest twelve month free cash flow (FCF) is a loss of about $47.46 million. Analyst estimates and extrapolations used in the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model point to FCF of $298 million by 2030, with interim years moving from a projected loss in 2026 to positive cash flows after that. All figures are in $ and are below $1b, so these are still relatively early stage cash flows for an Aerospace & Defense company.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back using the DCF model, Simply Wall St arrives at an estimated fair value of about $41.61 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $24.11, this indicates the stock is about 42.1% undervalued on this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Intuitive Machines is undervalued by 42.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Intuitive Machines Price vs Sales

For companies where earnings are not yet a steady guide, P/S is often a useful cross check because it compares what investors pay for each dollar of revenue rather than profit. Higher growth potential or lower perceived risk typically justify a higher P/S multiple, while slower growth or higher risk would usually point to a lower, more conservative range.

Intuitive Machines trades on a P/S of 18.36x, compared with an Aerospace & Defense industry average of 5.27x and a peer average of 5.48x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for the stock is 4.07x, which is its proprietary view of what the P/S could be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk profile.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages because it adjusts for the company’s own characteristics rather than assuming it should look like a typical peer. When compared with the current 18.36x P/S, the 4.07x Fair Ratio indicates that the stock is trading well above that fair range on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Intuitive Machines Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. Narratives let you attach a clear story about where you believe Intuitive Machines is heading to the numbers you care about, such as fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins, then connect that story to a forecast and a fair value you can compare with the current share price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are easy to use and update automatically when fresh information like news or earnings arrives, so you always see how a changing story flows through to an updated fair value and whether, in your view, the stock looks expensive or cheap at today’s price.

For Intuitive Machines, one investor Narrative might focus on capital dilution and arrive at a fair value of about US$12.09. Another might focus on long term lunar infrastructure contracts and see fair value closer to US$35. Comparing these to the current price may help you decide whether the bullish, cautious or consensus fair value of about US$22.28 best matches your own view of the company.

For Intuitive Machines however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Intuitive Machines Narratives:

Together they frame a reasonable range of fair values around the current share price, with one focused on long term contract potential and balance sheet strength, and the other focused on dilution, execution risk and what investors are already paying for that story today.

Here is how they compare in simple terms so you can see which one feels closer to your own view of the stock.

Narrative fair value: about US$42.30 per share

Approximate discount to this fair value at US$24.11: about 43% undervalued

Revenue growth used in the narrative model: 65%

• Focuses on a pipeline of lunar missions, NASA contracts and near space data relay work as key potential drivers of value.
• Highlights an estimated US$345 million cash balance, no debt and an indicated multi year cash runway at the time of the narrative, along with additional funding from a private offering.
• Emphasises management experience, long standing NASA relationships and the idea that contract execution and mission success could justify a higher long term fair value.

Narrative fair value: about US$23.00 per share

Approximate premium to this fair value at US$24.11: about 5% overvalued

Revenue growth used in the narrative model: about 63.59%

• Starts from projected revenue of about US$930.56 million and applies a 3.4x P/S multiple that is aligned with aerospace infrastructure peers rather than the higher current P/S.
• Stresses the impact of share count expansion to 216.8 million shares, which reduces value per share even when the business outlook and backlog are taken into account.
• Frames US$23.21 as an objective going concern value that builds in room for execution risk on missions and acknowledges recent insider selling and share price volatility.

If you want to see how other investors are joining these dots across growth, dilution, contracts and mission risk, and how that translates into a range of fair values for Intuitive Machines over time, To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Intuitive Machines on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there's more to the story for Intuitive Machines? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.