• Wondering whether Lattice Semiconductor at around US$125 a share still offers value, or if most of the upside has already been priced in.
• The stock has recently shown strong returns, with gains of 8.2% over 7 days, 28.7% over 30 days, 59.2% year to date and 157.7% over 1 year.
• Recent coverage has focused on Lattice Semiconductor as a specialist in low power programmable chips used in areas like communications and industrial applications, which helps explain why the stock has drawn increased attention. Broader discussion around AI related hardware and semiconductor demand has also kept the stock on many investors' watchlists.
• The current valuation score for Lattice Semiconductor is 0 out of 6. The sections that follow will walk through how different valuation methods arrive at that result, and then turn to an approach at the end that can give you a fuller picture of what the stock might be worth.

Lattice Semiconductor scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Lattice Semiconductor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and then discounting them back to today using a required return. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars are worth in today's money.

For Lattice Semiconductor, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company’s last twelve months Free Cash Flow is about $148.3 million. Analyst estimates and extrapolations from Simply Wall St project Free Cash Flow reaching $698.4 million in 2035, with intermediate projections such as $218.7 million in 2026 and $366.3 million in 2028, all in $.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back and combined with a terminal value, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $44.83 per share. Compared with the current share price around $125, this implies the stock is assessed as around 179.2% above the DCF estimate. On this cash flow view, the stock screens as expensive rather than cheap.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Lattice Semiconductor may be overvalued by 179.2%. Discover 44 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Lattice Semiconductor Price vs Sales

For profitable companies where revenue is a key driver, the P/S ratio is a useful way to compare what investors are paying for each dollar of sales. It is especially handy for stocks where earnings can be volatile or less representative of the overall business.

Higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk tend to support higher “normal” or “fair” P/S ratios, while slower growth or higher risk usually point to lower multiples. For Lattice Semiconductor, the current P/S ratio is 29.88x. That is above the Semiconductor industry average of 8.70x and above the peer group average of 19.93x.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what a company’s P/S might be given its earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk profile. This is more tailored than a simple comparison with industry or peers, which can miss important differences between companies. Lattice Semiconductor’s Fair Ratio is 16.84x, which is meaningfully below the current 29.88x P/S. This suggests the stock screens as expensive on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Lattice Semiconductor Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as simple stories that you choose about Lattice Semiconductor. In a Narrative, you set out how you think revenue, earnings and margins could evolve, then link that story to a financial forecast and a fair value that you can compare with the current price to decide whether the stock fits your buy or sell criteria.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool used by millions of investors. They update automatically when new information like earnings, guidance or news is added, so your fair value view stays in step with the latest data rather than a static spreadsheet.

For Lattice Semiconductor, one investor might adopt a more cautious Narrative that lines up with a fair value of about US$91.78 and assumes earnings of US$168.4 million in 2029 on a P/E of 98.8x. Another might follow a more optimistic Narrative with a fair value of US$135.00 and earnings of US$313.0 million in 2029 on a P/E of 78.3x. Comparing these storylines side by side can help you decide which assumptions feel realistic for your own portfolio.

For Lattice Semiconductor, we will make it straightforward for you with previews of two leading Lattice Semiconductor Narratives:

Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$135.00

Implied pricing gap vs last close: 7.3% below this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 38.31%

• Edges toward a higher fair value built around stronger growth in edge AI, device security and higher margin product lines such as Avant and Nexus 2.
• Assumes earnings of US$313.0 million by 2029, supported by rising profit margins, R&D expansion and a tilt toward software and solutions.
• Highlights meaningful risks around supply concentration, competition in small and mid range FPGAs, cyclical end markets and potential technology shifts.

Fair value in this consensus style narrative: US$114.71

Implied pricing gap vs last close: 9.1% above this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 23.74%

• Anchors on a consensus fair value that still reflects solid revenue growth from AI, edge computing and connected devices, but with more moderate expectations than the bullish scenario.
• Builds on analyst assumptions of earnings reaching US$210.0 million by 2029 on a higher future P/E, with support from mix shift toward newer FPGAs and software.
• Flags concentration in low power FPGAs, stronger competitors, regulatory and geopolitical risk and industry cyclicality as key factors that could cap long term upside.

If you want to see how these different assumptions play out in full financial models, and how other investors are framing the trade off between upside and risk, it is worth reviewing the detailed community work on Lattice Semiconductor.To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Lattice Semiconductor on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there's more to the story for Lattice Semiconductor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.