• Wondering if LyondellBasell Industries is priced attractively today, or if the recent run means you are late to the story.
• The stock last closed at US$74.99, with a 7.3% return over 7 days, a 2.2% decline over 30 days, a 68.9% return year to date, and a 40.3% return over 1 year.
• Recent coverage has focused on how LyondellBasell fits into the broader chemicals sector, with investors weighing its role in plastics, refining, and specialty materials as demand patterns shift. Commentary has also centered on how efficiently the company is using its asset base in this context, which helps frame current share price moves.
• LyondellBasell scores 4 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks. You can see the full breakdown in its valuation score. Next you will see how metrics like P/E, cash flow based models, and market comparisons line up, before finishing with a different way of thinking about value that pulls everything together.

Approach 1: LyondellBasell Industries Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required return. It is essentially asking what those future dollars are worth in today’s terms.

For LyondellBasell Industries, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $628.7 million. Analyst based projections and extrapolations extend out ten years, with forecast free cash flow in 2028 of around $1.5b and further estimated figures through to 2035.

Simply Wall St aggregates and discounts these annual cash flows, including the longer term extrapolated period, to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value of about $91.86 per share. Compared to the recent share price of US$74.99, this implies an 18.4% discount. This suggests the shares are trading below this cash flow based estimate of value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests LyondellBasell Industries is undervalued by 18.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: LyondellBasell Industries Price vs Sales

For companies that already generate meaningful revenue, the P/S ratio is a useful cross check because it relates the market value directly to the sales base, without being distorted by near term swings in earnings.

In general, higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can support a higher P/S multiple. Slower growth prospects or higher risk tend to align with a lower, more conservative range. The aim is to judge what investors might consider a normal level for each business, rather than applying a single rule of thumb.

LyondellBasell currently trades on a P/S ratio of 0.80x, compared with the Chemicals industry average of 1.12x and a peer group average of 0.91x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates a company specific P/S of 1.14x for LyondellBasell, based on factors such as its growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio approach can be more tailored than a simple comparison to industry or peers, because it adjusts for company specific traits instead of assuming all businesses deserve the same multiple. Comparing the Fair Ratio of 1.14x with the current 0.80x suggests the shares are trading below this sales based indication of value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your LyondellBasell Industries Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives bring this to life by letting you attach a clear story about LyondellBasell Industries to the numbers you care about. They link your view of future revenue, earnings and margins to a Fair Value, then compare that to the current price to help you judge when you might buy or sell. All of this takes place within Simply Wall St's Community page where these Narratives update automatically as new earnings or news arrive. For example, one user might build a bullish LyondellBasell Industries Narrative around a Fair Value near US$90.00 based on higher revenue growth and margins, while another might anchor a more cautious Narrative closer to US$38.00 with lower assumed growth. This gives you a clear, side by side view of how different stories translate into very different Fair Values.

For LyondellBasell Industries, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading LyondellBasell Industries Narratives:

Fair Value: US$90.00

Implied discount vs last close: about 16.7% below this fair value

Revenue assumption: 3.48% annual growth

• Analysts in this camp expect cost cuts, portfolio streamlining, and advanced recycling projects to lift margins and free cash flow.
• They lean on steady revenue growth, rising profit margins, and a future P/E of 14.8x applied to projected 2029 earnings of about US$2.6b.
• This view sees tighter polyethylene supply and the impact of the dividend reset as helping support a higher long run valuation multiple.

Fair Value: US$38.00

Implied premium vs last close: about 97.3% above this fair value

Revenue assumption: 3.14% annual decline

• The more cautious view focuses on regulatory pressure on plastics, alternative materials, and potential oversupply keeping a lid on pricing power.
• It assumes revenue contraction, only moderate margin improvement, and a future P/E of 11.1x on 2028 earnings of about US$1.6b.
• This camp sees the current share price as already baking in a recovery story that may be hard to fully deliver if demand and pricing stay under pressure.

Both Narratives sit side by side on the Community page, so you can stress test your own assumptions against bullish and bearish cases, adjust the revenue or margin sliders, and see how that moves Fair Value in real time. That way, your view on LyondellBasell Industries is anchored in clear numbers rather than a single headline or price target.

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for LyondellBasell Industries on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there's more to the story for LyondellBasell Industries? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.