• Investors may be wondering if Marriott International at around US$326 per share still offers value, or if most of the opportunity has already been priced in.
• The stock has recorded returns of 2.1% over the last 7 days, 1.4% over 30 days, 4.2% year to date, 8.8% over 1 year, 92.4% over 3 years and 167.3% over 5 years. This raises fair questions about what you are paying for today.
• Recent attention on large branded hotel operators, including Marriott, has focused on how asset light models, loyalty ecosystems and fee based revenues hold up across different travel cycles. This backdrop helps frame whether recent share price moves are grounded in fundamentals or in changing sentiment about long term travel demand and capital light business structures.
• Simply Wall St currently assigns Marriott International a valuation score of 0 out of 6. In the next sections we will look at how different valuation approaches arrive at that view, before finishing with an even more practical way to think about the stock's value in your own portfolio.

Marriott International scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Marriott International Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today’s value. It is essentially asking what tomorrow’s cash is worth in today’s dollars.

For Marriott International, Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model based on its latest twelve month free cash flow of about $1.91b. Analyst and model projections suggest free cash flow rising to $4.20b in 2029, with a series of annual estimates between 2026 and 2035 discounted back to today using a required return assumption.

When those projected cash flows, ranging from about $2.66b to $3.00b on a discounted basis across 2026 to 2029 and around $2.51b to $2.97b for 2030 to 2035, are summed and adjusted, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $284.38 per share.

Against a current share price around $326, the DCF output implies the stock is about 14.8% overvalued on this set of cash flow assumptions.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Marriott International may be overvalued by 14.8%. Discover 55 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Marriott International Price vs Earnings

For a profitable business like Marriott International, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to see what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Investors usually accept a higher P/E if they see stronger growth potential or lower perceived risk, and a lower P/E if they are more cautious on those factors.

Marriott currently trades on a P/E of 33.55x. That sits above the Hospitality industry average of 20.93x and also above the peer group average of 30.03x, which suggests the market is applying a premium to Marriott compared with many competitors.

Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio for Marriott is 28.52x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a more balanced P/E might look like after factoring in the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks. Because it blends these elements, the Fair Ratio can give a more tailored view than a simple comparison with peers or an industry average.

Comparing Marriott’s current P/E of 33.55x with the Fair Ratio of 28.52x implies the shares are trading above that tailored range.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Marriott International Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company linked directly to your own numbers for fair value, future revenue, earnings and margins.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page and let you connect Marriott International’s business story to a financial forecast, then to a fair value that you can compare with today’s share price to help decide whether the stock looks attractive, fairly priced or expensive for you.

Because Narratives update as new information comes in, such as earnings releases or major news, your view of Marriott’s worth stays current without you needing to rebuild your analysis from scratch each time.

For example, one investor might publish a Marriott Narrative with a higher fair value based on optimistic assumptions about future fee based revenue and margins, while another might set a much lower fair value using more conservative revenue growth and profitability estimates.

Do you think there's more to the story for Marriott International? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.