• Wondering whether Ondas stock still offers value after a sharp run up, or if most of the opportunity is already reflected in the price.
• The stock closed at US$9.06, with the share price down 6.9% over the last week and down 0.8% over the past month, despite a very large return over the last year and a return of around 9x over three years.
• That kind of move has put Ondas firmly on many investors' radars, prompting closer attention on what is driving sentiment and how sustainable it might be. Even without a single headline event, the combination of strong multi year returns and recent short term weakness sets the stage for a closer look at what the market may be pricing in now.
• Simply Wall St currently gives Ondas a valuation score of 4 out of 6. This raises an important question about which methods best capture what the stock is really worth today and whether there is an even better way to think about value that will be unpacked at the end of this article.

Approach 1: Ondas Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes projected future cash flows, then discounts them back to today to estimate what the business might be worth right now in dollar terms. It is essentially asking what a stream of future cash flows is worth to you today.

For Ondas, the latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $41.61 million. Analysts and extrapolations then project free cash flow moving to $330.49 million by 2030, with a detailed 10 year path that shifts from further cash outflows in 2026 and 2027 to rising cash inflows from 2028 onward. Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, where the first stage relies on explicit yearly estimates and the second stage extends those trends further out.

On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $18.60 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $9.06, this framework suggests Ondas stock is 51.3% undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Ondas is undervalued by 51.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 49 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Ondas Price vs Book

For companies where book value is a meaningful anchor, the P/B ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying relative to the net assets on the balance sheet. Higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/B multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower, more conservative range.

Ondas currently trades on a P/B of 10.07x. That sits well above the Communications industry average P/B of 2.25x, and below the peer group average of 14.11x. These simple comparisons show how the stock is priced against broad benchmarks, but they do not factor in Ondas specific profile.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is designed to do exactly that. It estimates what a “normal” P/B multiple might look like after accounting for elements such as earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap. Because it is tailored to the company, it can be more informative than relying purely on industry or peer averages. For Ondas, there is currently no Fair Ratio available, so it is not possible to draw a firm conclusion on whether the stock looks overvalued or undervalued using this framework.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Ondas Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St that comes through Narratives, where you attach your own story about Ondas to a set of numbers by spelling out assumptions for revenue, earnings and margins. You then link that story to a fair value estimate, and let the platform compare that fair value with the current share price so you can see whether your view suggests the stock looks cheap or expensive. Narratives stay in sync with new information because they update when fresh news or earnings arrive.

On the Community page, these Narratives are easy to use and already show how different investors can look at the same company in very different ways. One Ondas Narrative sets a fair value around US$8.25 and others are closer to US$19.50 or even US$24.11. These differences reflect contrasting views on how quickly revenue might grow, where profit margins could settle and what P/E multiple is reasonable. This gives you a clear range of stories to compare with your own expectations before deciding how attractive the stock looks today.

For Ondas however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Ondas Narratives:

Fair value: US$19.50

Implied discount to this fair value: around 54% below the narrative estimate at the recent US$9.06 share price

Revenue growth assumption: 180.92%

• Frames Ondas as building a “Layered ISR” security stack that uses stratospheric balloons from World View paired with unmanned aircraft systems for continuous monitoring and response.
• Highlights a US$20m initial purchase order for an autonomous border protection program and positions Ondas as a potential prime contractor offering a turnkey “Sovereign Security Grid.”
• Views the US$10m World View investment as a step toward becoming an important security provider if government orders are executed well.

Fair value: US$8.25

Implied premium to this fair value: around 10% above the narrative estimate at the recent US$9.06 share price

Revenue growth assumption: 186.17%

• Points out that the share price moved from US$0.76 to US$10.75 in a year and that different growth paths can make Ondas look either undervalued or overvalued against this fair value band.
• Summarises recent quarterly and preliminary full year figures for 2025, including strong revenue growth, higher cash from equity raises, and ongoing losses and dilution.
• Emphasises that guidance for 2026 and the M&A pipeline carry execution risks, with profitability targets and integration of new acquisitions described as key swing factors.

If you want to see how other investors are framing Ondas, and where your own expectations sit in that range, See what the community is saying about Ondas.

Do you think there's more to the story for Ondas? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.