• If you are wondering whether Palantir Technologies is still priced for big expectations or has already run too far, the next sections focus squarely on what the current share price might imply about value.
• The stock last closed at US$146.49, after a 5.5% decline over the past week, a 0.9% gain over the past month, a 12.7% decline year to date, and a 67.5% return over the past year, with a very large gain over three and five years.
• Recent coverage has continued to focus on Palantir's role in data analytics and AI for government and commercial clients. This helps frame how investors may be thinking about long term revenue opportunities. At the same time, commentary around competition in software, data security, and contract pipelines serves as a reminder that expectations are closely tied to future execution.
• Despite the strong long term share price performance, Palantir currently scores 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks. The rest of this article will break down what that means using different valuation methods, before finishing with a way to think about valuation that can add even more context to the raw numbers.

Palantir Technologies scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Palantir Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s value to estimate what the business might be worth per share.

For Palantir Technologies, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow (FCF) is about US$2.1b. The 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model then uses analyst projections for the next few years and extends them further out. By 2030, projected FCF is US$13.3b, with ten year projections ranging from roughly US$4.0b in 2026 to about US$23.2b in 2035. Simply Wall St notes that analyst inputs typically cover up to five years, and later years are extrapolated from those assumptions.

Discounting all those projected cash flows back to today results in an estimated intrinsic value of US$122.47 per share based on this DCF model. Compared with the recent share price of US$146.49, this implies the stock is about 19.6% overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Palantir Technologies may be overvalued by 19.6%. Discover 63 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Palantir Technologies Price vs Book

For companies that are profitable and asset light, the Price to Book (P/B) ratio can help you see how much investors are paying relative to the accounting value of net assets.

In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk can support a higher P/B multiple. Slower expected growth or higher uncertainty usually point to a lower, more conservative range that investors may be comfortable paying.

Palantir Technologies currently trades on a P/B of 47.43x. This compares with the Software industry average P/B of 2.63x and a peer group average of 19.72x, so the stock is priced at a much higher multiple than both of these benchmarks.

Simply Wall St also uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for the preferred multiple, which is the P/B level that might be expected after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks. This Fair Ratio can often be more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peers because it is tailored to the company’s specific profile.

In Palantir’s case, the Fair Ratio sits well below the current P/B of 47.43x, so on this metric the stock screens as expensive.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Palantir Technologies Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. This is where Narratives come in, letting you attach a clear story about Palantir Technologies to concrete numbers such as your fair value, revenue growth and margin assumptions. You can then see that story quantified on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives are updated automatically when new results or news arrive. These can be compared with the current share price to help you judge whether your fair value sits above or below US$146.49. Narratives range from very optimistic views, such as a fair value of US$5,967.47 with high assumed growth and rich future P/E multiples, through to much more cautious views, such as a fair value of US$68.26 with lower growth and a 30x future P/E, so you can decide which version of the Palantir story best matches your own expectations.

For Palantir Technologies however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Palantir Technologies Narratives:

Fair value: US$699.78

Implied discount to this fair value: 79.1%

Revenue growth assumption: 50%

• Emphasises Palantir’s on site deployment model, with engineers embedded at customers to support adoption and integration.
• Highlights the role of more than 500 AIP bootcamps in accelerating onboarding and keeping users actively engaged with the platform.
• Points to customer feedback that Foundry and AIP can change how teams work with data, potentially lifting productivity and scaling opportunities.

Fair value: US$96.00

Implied premium to this fair value: 52.6%

Revenue growth assumption: 26%

• Frames recent valuation ratios such as P/E, P/B, PEG, EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA as high, with a lot of future expectations reflected in the share price.
• Flags key business risks, including reliance on government contracts, rising competition in data analytics and AI, and exposure to regulation around data and cybersecurity.
• Notes that mixed market sentiment, combined with macro and policy uncertainty, could keep the share price sensitive to any change in growth or contract momentum.

Do you think there's more to the story for Palantir Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.