Li Auto (NasdaqGS:LI) drew attention after reporting June deliveries of 30,895 vehicles, with cumulative deliveries reaching 1,733,687 for the year to date through June 30, 2026, giving investors fresh sales data to consider.

Despite the fresh delivery update, Li Auto’s recent share price performance has been weak, with the stock down 29.86% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return declining 56.25%. This points to fading momentum even as operational data remains in focus.

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Li Auto’s shares have retreated sharply even as deliveries and headline revenue keep moving, leaving a gap between the recent share price and some valuation markers. Does that setback now tilt the risk reward in buyers’ favor, or not?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.8% Undervalued

Li Auto’s most followed narrative presents a fair value estimate of $18.55 compared with a last close of $12.10, indicating a sizable valuation gap for investors to consider.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $18.55 for Li Auto based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $26.95 and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $14.03.

Want to see what sits behind that projected uplift for Li Auto? The narrative considers a multi year ramp in revenue, margin repair, and a richer profit multiple. The exact mix of growth, profitability and discount rate assumptions might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $18.55 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Li Auto still faces meaningful risks, including high R&D and AI spending that could pressure cash flow, as well as intense EV competition that may squeeze margins if sales momentum disappoints.

Next Steps

With sentiment on Li Auto feeling mixed, this is a moment to move quickly, carefully review the available data for yourself, and see how the 2 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.