Mosaic (MOS) is approaching a key catalyst, with second quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for August 4 after the close, followed by an investor conference call on August 5 to discuss the results.

Mosaic's recent 7 day share price return of 11.57% and 1 day gain of 0.44% to US$23.04 contrasts with a weaker picture, with total shareholder returns declining 32.86% over the past year and 33.71% over three years. This suggests near term momentum has picked up while long term holders are still under pressure.

If earnings season has you looking beyond Mosaic, this is a good moment to scan other materials producers through our curated list of 8 top copper producer stocks

After a strong short term bounce, long term Mosaic holders are still sitting on sizeable declines. Does the current price adequately compensate you for the earnings risk ahead, or has the easy part of the opportunity already passed?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.1% Undervalued

Mosaic's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $26.82 per share, compared with the latest close at $23.04, which frames the coming earnings as a key test of that upside case.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $421.4 million (and earnings per share of $1.47) by about June 2029, up from $45.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $783.7 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $320.7 million.

Want to see what underpins that jump in Mosaic's earnings power? The narrative leans on modest sales growth, much higher margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really move the discounted cash flow at an 8.54% discount rate? The full story lays out how those pieces add up to that $26.82 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $26.82 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Mosaic's reliance on phosphate and potash cycles, along with regulatory and environmental cost pressures, could weaken margins and challenge the current undervalued narrative.

Next Steps

With mixed sentiment around Mosaic's upside and the risks flagged, this is a good time to review the data and form your own view using the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Mosaic?

If Mosaic has you thinking harder about where to put fresh capital, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas.

• Target resilient income by scanning companies we flag as potential 10 dividend fortresses that may appeal if regular cash returns matter to you.
• Hunt for potential value opportunities by reviewing our curated set of 47 high quality undervalued stocks that fit strict fundamentals based criteria.
• Seek out potential future standouts by checking a screener containing 20 high quality undiscovered gems that could otherwise slip past your radar.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.