• On 10 February 2026, Nasdaq, Inc. launched the Nasdaq Private Capital™ Indexes, a rules-based benchmark suite built from more than 14,000 institutional private market funds representing about US$11.40 trillion in global AUM across private equity, debt, venture, real estate and other strategies.
• The indexes apply a documented methodology, including Modified Dietz quarterly performance and NAV-weighted aggregation, aiming to give institutional investors clearer, more consistent performance measurement in historically opaque private markets.
• Next, we examine how this expanded private capital indexing capability could influence Nasdaq's investment narrative and its higher quality solutions mix.

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Nasdaq Investment Narrative Recap

To own Nasdaq, I think you need to believe in its shift from a traditional exchange toward higher margin data, index and technology solutions. The new Nasdaq Private Capital Indexes support that story by deepening its presence in private markets, but the most important near term catalyst still sits in converting this broader solutions suite into stable recurring revenues. The biggest current risk remains slower client decision cycles and macro uncertainty that could delay uptake of these newer platforms.

Among recent announcements, the Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results stand out, as they show how the existing business is performing while Nasdaq adds capabilities like the Private Capital Indexes on top. With revenue of US$8,218 million and net income of US$1,788 million for 2025, investors can see how the higher quality solutions mix is already feeding into earnings, even as competition from other exchanges and fintech firms continues to pressure Nasdaq to keep innovating.

Yet while these new indexes strengthen the story, investors should be aware of how prolonged client decision delays could...

Nasdaq’s narrative projects $6.1 billion revenue and $2.0 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Nasdaq's forecasts yield a $108.33 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$46 to US$205 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set those against the risk that large Financial Technology deals may be delayed in a weaker macro backdrop, it underscores why many market participants look at several perspectives before forming an opinion on Nasdaq’s prospects.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Nasdaq - why the stock might be worth 43% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Nasdaq Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Nasdaq research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Nasdaq research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nasdaq's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.