How Stanley Black & Decker stock has been performing

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) has delivered a 25.95% total return over the past year, with gains of 3.41% over the past month and 17.42% over the past 3 months, based on recent performance figures.

At a share price of US$89.25, Stanley Black & Decker’s recent 7 day share price return of 1.47% and 90 day share price return of 17.42% point to building short term momentum, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 25.95% contrasts with a 5 year total shareholder return that is down 45.35%.

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After a sharp rebound and a 1 year total return of 25.95%, Stanley Black & Decker is no longer a clear recovery play. Is there still meaningful upside left, or has most of the easy progress already played out in the price?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.7% Undervalued

On the most followed narrative, Stanley Black & Decker’s fair value of $92.65 sits slightly above the recent $89.25 share price, with that gap hinging on what happens to margins and earnings power over the next few years.

The multi-year supply chain transformation nearing its final phase is delivering substantial recurring cost reductions, improved operational flexibility, and resilience to trade/tariff shocks. Management expects these initiatives to drive gross margin back to 35%+ by late 2026, supporting sustained improvements in net margins and earnings.

Want to see what sits under that margin story? The narrative leans on steady revenue progress, higher profitability, and a lower future earnings multiple than today. The mix of these moving parts is what drives the $92.65 outcome.

Result: Fair Value of $92.65 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Stanley Black & Decker still faces pressure from soft DIY and Outdoor demand, and depends heavily on major retailers where pricing and volumes can be hard to sustain.

Next Steps

With mixed signals around Stanley Black & Decker’s recent recovery and future margin potential, it makes sense to consider both the risks and the rewards, then form your own view using the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.