• If you are wondering whether Wynn Resorts at around US$107.85 is offering fair value or a potential mismatch between price and worth, you are not alone. That question is exactly what this article will unpack for you.
• The stock is down 4.7% over the last week and 7.3% over the last month, while still showing a 35.3% return over the past year and 2.3% over three years. It has a 7.4% decline across five years and a 12.0% decline year to date.
• Recent attention on Wynn Resorts has focused on how its share price performance compares with the broader leisure and hospitality sector, and what that might mean for investor sentiment today. This backdrop helps frame whether the recent pullback looks like a pause in a longer trend or a sign that expectations are being reset.
• On our valuation checklist, Wynn Resorts scores 4 out of 6 for potential undervaluation, giving it a value score of 4. In the sections that follow we will look at how different methods arrive at that result and introduce an even richer way to think about value by the end of the article.

Approach 1: Wynn Resorts Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model projects the cash Wynn Resorts could generate for shareholders in the future, then discounts those amounts back to what they might be worth today.

On this view, Wynn Resorts currently has last twelve months free cash flow of about $842.2 million. Using analyst inputs and Simply Wall St extrapolations, free cash flow is projected at $1,144.1 million in 2027, with a series of further estimates running out to 2035. These projections are based on a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model that gradually tapers growth over time.

When all those future cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $166.40 per share. Compared with the current share price of around $107.85, this implies the stock trades at roughly a 35.2% discount, which indicates potential undervaluation based on this DCF approach alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Wynn Resorts is undervalued by 35.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 55 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Wynn Resorts Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful quick check because it links what you are paying for each share with the earnings that business is currently generating. In general, higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can support a higher “normal” P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower one.

Wynn Resorts currently trades on a P/E of about 22.0x. That is slightly above the broader Hospitality industry average of around 21.1x, yet below the peer group average of roughly 30.3x. To refine this comparison, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 21.48x, which reflects factors such as Wynn’s earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market value and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for company specific drivers rather than assuming one size fits all. When you set the current P/E of 22.0x against the Fair Ratio of 21.48x, the gap is small, which points to Wynn Resorts trading close to what this model suggests is a reasonable earnings multiple.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Wynn Resorts Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you connect your view of Wynn Resorts’ story to concrete forecasts and a Fair Value. You can then compare that Fair Value to today’s price and see how it updates when new news or earnings arrive, whether you lean closer to the cautious case that once saw fair value near US$83.00 or the more optimistic view around US$164.00.

Do you think there's more to the story for Wynn Resorts? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.