Pacific Excel Wealth Advisors’ newly reported stake in XPEL (XPEL), valued at about US$4.1 million and accounting for 1.6% of its 13F assets, has drawn fresh attention to the protective film maker’s stock.

At a share price of US$44.49, XPEL has seen its share price fall 8.3% over the past week and 11.5% year to date, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 25.5% contrasts with a 3 year total shareholder return that is down 46.4%. This suggests earlier enthusiasm has cooled even as recent news like Pacific Excel Wealth Advisors’ new position keeps attention on the stock’s potential and risks.

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For XPEL, the recent pullback and new institutional interest could point to either a business that is quietly getting stronger or a swing in sentiment after a tough few years, so how does the current valuation stack up?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.9% Undervalued

With XPEL shares at $44.49 against a narrative fair value of $51.67, the current setup centers on whether the long term expansion story justifies that gap.

Expansion into emerging and international markets (e.g., Thailand, Japan, China, Brazil, Europe, India, Middle East) is well underway, with further direct distribution efforts and M&A planned. This broadens XPEL's addressable market and diversifies revenue streams, supporting accelerated revenue growth and reducing regional concentration risk over time.

Want to understand why this valuation leans on global rollout, richer margins, and a different earnings mix for XPEL, without assuming sky high growth across every region?

Result: Fair Value of $51.67 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the XPEL story could change quickly if lower cost competitors squeeze pricing or if automakers accelerate factory installed protection that bypasses aftermarket players.

Another View: XPEL Through the Earnings Multiple Lens

While the XPEL narrative fair value points to a 13.9% discount, the earnings multiple view sends a mixed message. The stock trades on a P/E of 23.1x, which is higher than the US Auto Components industry at 20.4x and above its fair ratio of 20.9x.

The higher P/E suggests investors are already paying a premium compared to both peers and where the fair ratio indicates the market could move. This raises the question of whether you are being compensated enough for that valuation risk if expectations stumble.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals around XPEL have you on the fence, consider reviewing the situation promptly and examining the facts yourself, including the 3 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.