Overview

• US phosphate fertilizer producer's Q1 revenue rose 5% yr/yr on higher product prices

• Adjusted EBITDA and net income fell due to higher sulfur and sulfuric acid costs

• Company expects higher per-unit revenues in coming quarters as contract pricing adjusts

Outlook

• Itafos expects phosphate prices to improve through H1 2026 due to supply constraints

• Company forecasts 2026 sales volumes of 335-355 thousand tonnes P2O5

• Itafos sees 2026 maintenance capex at $23-33 mln and growth capex at $63-83 mln

Result Drivers

• HIGHER INPUT COSTS - Co said significantly higher sulfur and sulfuric acid costs led to lower adjusted EBITDA margins and adjusted EBITDA

• HIGHER PRODUCT PRICES - Revenue growth was driven by higher product prices, though full benefit not reflected in Q1 due to contract pricing mechanism

• RECORD MAP PRODUCTION - Conda achieved its highest quarterly MAP production volumes since acquisition in 2018

Company press release: ID:nGNXcbRWT5

Key Details

Metric	Beat/Miss	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Q1 Revenue		$142.20 mln
Q1 Net Income		$1.70 mln
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA		$18.40 mln
Q1 Capex		$12.60 mln

Analyst Coverage

• The one available analyst rating on the shares is "strong buy"

• The average consensus recommendation for the agricultural chemicals peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Itafos Inc is C$5.50, about 54.9% above its April 28 closing price of C$3.55

• The stock recently traded at 11 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 9 three months ago

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