What Itron’s latest earnings and guidance tell you

Itron (ITRI) released second quarter results that showed lower revenue and net income compared to a year earlier, while also giving investors specific revenue ranges for the third quarter and full year 2026.

Itron’s recent earnings update and ongoing share repurchases sit against a mixed price picture, with a strong 18.33% 7 day share price return and 16.70% 90 day share price return, but a 1 year total shareholder return that declined 19.09% and longer term total shareholder returns that remain positive.

If you are comparing Itron with other power grid technology plays, it can help to widen the watchlist and see what else is moving through the 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

The recent jump in Itron’s share price sits against a wide gap between the current US$99.66 level and published value estimates. The next step is to determine where fair value appears to be anchored within that range.

Most Popular Narrative: 21.3% Undervalued

Against the last close at $99.66, the most widely followed narrative for Itron points to a fair value of $126.70, with that gap explained by specific growth, margin and discount rate assumptions rather than sentiment alone.

Ongoing industry wide digitalization and increased adoption of IoT by utilities are driving higher uptake of Itron's Outcomes (software and analytics) offerings, which are higher margin and boost recurring revenue, supporting continued net margin and earnings expansion.

Want to see the math behind that fair value gap? The narrative leans heavily on earnings power, recurring software revenue and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions do the heavy lifting in that model.

Result: Fair Value of $126.70 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Itron’s story can shift if large utility projects face prolonged regulatory delays or if Outcomes software growth slows. Either situation could pressure revenue mix and margins.

Next Steps

With mixed signals around Itron’s valuation, margins and project risks, it makes sense to look at the full risk and reward balance yourself. You can start by weighing both sides through the 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.