J. P. Morgan lowers 2026 gold price forecast

Jpmorgan Chase

Jpmorgan Chase

JPM

0.00

Adds J.P. Morgan and ANZ price forecasts

- J.P. Morgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, citing softer near-term demand for the metal as investor client interest has "dried to a trickle."

"This quietness shows through in stagnant activity and demand metrics. COMEX aggregate gold futures open interest and volume have remained depressed, net Managed Money futures open interest has stagnated at low levels and ETF flows have been light," analysts at the bank said in a note dated Sunday.

Despite the downgrade, the bank maintained a bullish outlook, expecting prices to climb toward $6,000 an ounce by the end of 2026 as demand strengthens in the second half of the year.

"We retain our bullish medium-term outlook and forecast that after the immense energy and inflation uncertainty clears, gold demand from investors and central banks will again re-intensify over 2H26."

The downgrade comes after ANZ also on Friday lowered its year-end target price for gold to $5,600 as inflation expectations, higher yields and a stronger dollar are likely to pressure prices.

Spot gold XAU= has fallen about 14% since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war in late February, as rising oil prices stoke concerns around inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Prices earlier in the day hit their lowest since March 30 as a global bond rout deepened on mounting inflation fears. GOL/

Following is a list of analysts' latest gold price forecasts (in $ per ounce):

Brokerage/Agency

Annual Price Forecast

Price Targets

Forecast as of

2026

J.P. Morgan

$5,243

Expects prices towards $6,000 by year-end, as demand re-accelerates in H2'26

May 18, 2026

ANZ*

$5,600

Defers $6,000/oz gold target to mid-2027 from early 2027

May 15, 2026

Macquarie Group

$4,323

Expects prices to average $4,590 in first quarter and $4,300 in second quarter

February 5, 2026

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

Expects $6,100-$6,300 by end of 2026

February 4, 2026

UBS

-

Raises target to $6,200 for March,

June, and September 2026

January 29, 2026

Deutsche Bank

$5,500

$6,000 in 2026

January 26, 2026

Societe Generale

-

$6,000 by the end of 2026

January 26, 2026

Morgan Stanley

$4,600

Bull case is $5,700 for second half of 2026

January 23, 2026

Goldman Sachs

-

$5,400 by December 2026

January 22, 2026

Citi Research

$5,000

Raises 0-3 month price target to $5,000

January 13, 2026

HSBC

$4,587

$4,450 by year-end 2026

January 8, 2026

ANZ

$4,445

$4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026

October 16, 2025

Bank of America

$4,438

2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000

October 13, 2025

Standard Chartered

$4,488

-

October 13, 2025

Commerzbank

$4,900

$4,800 by mid-2026

January 13, 2026

*end-of-period forecasts