Joby Aviation (JOBY) has just raised about US$1.2b through common stock and convertible notes, a funding step aimed at supporting FAA certification efforts and scaling production of its electric air taxis.

The funding news comes after a sharp 32.35% 30 day share price return decline and a 26.74% negative year to date share price return. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 35.22% and very large 3 year total shareholder return of around 2.5x suggest longer term momentum has, so far, been stronger than the recent pullback.

If this kind of capital raise has you looking at the wider air mobility and automation space, it could be a good moment to scan 28 robotics and automation stocks for other ideas tied to similar themes.

With Joby now trading at US$10.52, about 20% below the average analyst price target of US$12.63 and fresh capital secured but dilution front of mind, is this weakness an entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.4% Undervalued

Using the most followed narrative, Joby Aviation's fair value of $12.14 sits above the last close of $10.52, which immediately raises questions about what assumptions are doing the heavy lifting.

The eVTOL sector is moving into a more regulated and capital intensive phase, with Joby now in the costly final stages of FAA Type Certification and building five TIA aircraft. Any slippage in certification timing or test results could extend loss making periods and push out the ramp in operating earnings.

Want to see what is behind that valuation gap? The narrative leans on rapid revenue expansion, rising margins and a future earnings multiple more often associated with mature market leaders.

Result: Fair Value of $12.14 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are also clear swing factors, such as Joby successfully scaling routes with Blade or securing larger defense and autonomy programs, that could challenge this cautious setup.

Another Take: Rich On Traditional Metrics

That 13.4% “undervalued” fair value sits against a very different message from Joby’s current P/B of 11.4x, compared with 1.7x for the North American Airlines industry and 2.5x for peers. That kind of gap points to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools.

Build Your Own Joby Aviation Narrative

If you are not on board with this view or just prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can shape a custom Joby story in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Joby Aviation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.