Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) just posted its fourth quarter 2025 results, reporting revenue of US$1,856.33 million and a net loss of US$6.8 million, compared with net income of US$69.5 million in the same period a year earlier.

The weak fourth quarter and swing to a net loss sit against a share price of US$55.10, with a 90 day share price return of 23.02% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 39.16%. This suggests recent momentum contrasts with a more mixed longer term experience.

If this earnings setback has you reassessing the transport sector, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the shares up 23.02% over 90 days yet trading at a reported 58.88% discount to one intrinsic estimate and below the average analyst price target, is there still a potential opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Undervalued

With Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings trading at $55.10 against a most-followed fair value estimate of $63.05, the narrative sketches out a valuation gap built on assumed freight recovery and efficiency gains.

The continued expansion and integration of the LTL (less-than-truckload) segment is driving shipment and customer growth, with significant operating leverage expected as new facilities and network investments mature, supporting long-term revenue growth and eventual margin improvement.

Curious what kind of revenue path, margin reset, and future earnings multiple have to line up to support that price gap? The full narrative lays out a detailed freight recovery roadmap, the role of technology in lowering unit costs, and the earnings profile that underpins that $63.05 fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $63.05 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on freight demand and LTL integration not stalling, because softer volumes or prolonged cost pressure could easily derail those margin and earnings hopes.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Sends A Very Different Signal

While the most-followed fair value of $63.05 points to upside, the current P/E of 135.6x is far above the estimated fair ratio of 33.6x, the US Transportation average of 34.3x, and the peer average of 28.1x. That gap points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations reset. Which signal do you trust more?

Build Your Own Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to rely on your own analysis, you can test the assumptions and build a custom view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready to hunt for more ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.