The Kraft Heinz Company's (NASDAQ:KHC) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.40 per share on 27th of March. Based on this payment, the dividend yield on the company's stock will be 6.5%, which is an attractive boost to shareholder returns.

Kraft Heinz's Long-term Dividend Outlook appears Promising

Impressive dividend yields are good, but this doesn't matter much if the payments can't be sustained. While Kraft Heinz is not profitable, it is paying out less than 75% of its free cash flow, which means that there is plenty left over for reinvestment into the business. We generally think that cash flow is more important than accounting measures of profit, so we are fairly comfortable with the dividend at this level.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise exponentially over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio will be 16%, which makes us pretty comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.

Dividend Volatility

While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2016, the annual payment back then was $2.30, compared to the most recent full-year payment of $1.60. This works out to be a decline of approximately 3.6% per year over that time. Generally, we don't like to see a dividend that has been declining over time as this can degrade shareholders' returns and indicate that the company may be running into problems.

The Dividend Has Limited Growth Potential

Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Kraft Heinz's earnings per share has shrunk at 31% a year over the past five years. A sharp decline in earnings per share is not great from from a dividend perspective. Even conservative payout ratios can come under pressure if earnings fall far enough. On the bright side, earnings are predicted to gain some ground over the next year, but until this turns into a pattern we wouldn't be feeling too comfortable.

Kraft Heinz's Dividend Doesn't Look Sustainable

Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. The payments haven't been particularly stable and we don't see huge growth potential, but with the dividend well covered by cash flows it could prove to be reliable over the short term. We don't think Kraft Heinz is a great stock to add to your portfolio if income is your focus.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.