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BATTERY METALS BOOST?

So-called battery metals, including cobalt COB-CATH-LON, lithium, and nickel CMNI3, have not seen a strong price reaction amid the Iran war - but that could be changing, Jonathan Schroer, ESG and energy strategist at UniCredit, said in a note.

Battery metals have seen occasional sharp price spikes amid long periods of pulling back since the start of 2025, usually linked to reduced supply as mining countries have imposed measures to boost prices, he said.

But now, "there are initial signs of a sustained increase in demand. Investments in renewable energy and electrification are gathering steam as oil and gas shortages stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz reinforce investment growth in renewables and electrification," Schroer explained.

Schroer cites Chinese customs data, which reflects recent jumps in solar panel and battery exports, while some energy projects in Asia have moved to renewables as a power source rather than LNG.

"A sudden uptick in the most important battery metal, lithium, at the end of April could be a sign of accelerating demand for EVs and energy-storage systems," he added.

"If these recent indicators solidify into a sustained acceleration in demand in the months ahead, then upward pressure on battery-metal prices is likely to build," Schroer said.

Existing measures designed to counteract earlier excess supply could mean that any initial demand increase would be absorbed if producers loosen restrictions, he noted.

"Nevertheless, even this relatively calm corner of the commodities market – at least since the start of the Iran war – could come under increasing price pressure if exporters are slow to adjust the supply constraints they have introduced."

(Sophie Kiderlin)

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