Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

FED DAY DATA: DURABLE GOODS, HOUSING STARTS/BUILDING PERMITS, ET AL

As the Federal Reserve nears the end of its two-day policy meeting - likely the last one of the Powell era - a smattering of economic reports gave the data-hungry policymakers something to chew on.

New orders for long-lasting, U.S.-made goods USGDN=ECI rose by 0.8% in March, stronger than the 0.5% analysts expected and marking a partial rebound from February's 1.2% decline.

This time, orders for defense goods provided the muscle.

Diving below the surface of the Commerce Department's report - which covers everything from waffle irons to attack drones - an 18% jump in defense-related capital goods more than made up for a 28.6% decline in commercial aircraft. Remove the defense segment, and new orders would have decreased by 0.3%.

Motor vehicles/parts rose 1.2%, while computers and electronics increased by 3.7%.

New orders for core capital goods - which excludes aircraft and defense items and is considered a barometer of U.S. corporate capex plans - jumped 3.3%, breezing past the 0.5% consensus and marking the biggest monthly increase since June 2020.

"The FOMC will read this result as supporting its view that the economy remains 'solid,'" writes Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "That assessment will free the FOMC up to focus on inflation risks, which are manifold at this time."

Turning to the housing market, groundbreaking on new American homes USHST=ECI jumped by 10.8% in March to 1.502 million units at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR), according to the Commerce Department.

That's a robust 7.3% stronger than the 1.4 million units SAAR analysts were expecting, but it also follows a steep downward revision to February's increase, to 1.8% from 7.2%.

Below the headline, single-family projects - which account for the lion's share of the total - increased 9.7% to the highest number since February 2025, while the starts in the volatile multiple-unit segment surged by 13.3%.

On the other hand, building permits USBPE=ECI - considered one of the housing market's more forward-looking indicators - dropped 10.8% to 1.372 million units SAAR, or 1.3% weaker than economists predicted.

Here, the multiple-unit segment suffered the brunt of it, tumbling 21.5%, while permits for single-family projects dropped 3.8%.

"The homebuilding sector still faces headwinds from prior over-construction, high mortgage rates, and the slowdown in population growth to a near-zero pace," writes Samuel Tombs, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "These factors mean that the inventory of new single-family homes for sale is well above its long-run average relative to the pace of sales, and the vacancy rate for all rented properties has risen to a 12-year high. With multi-family units now especially hard to shift, homebuilders will slow down."

Elsewhere in the sector, the average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI ticked 2 basis points higher last week to 6.35%.

Would-be borrowers were, on balance, unimpressed.

While demand for loans to purchase homes USMGPI=ECI increased 1.2%, refi applications USMGR=ECI, which accounted for a 42.5% share of the mortgage pie, fell by 5.3%.

Combined, home loan demand jumped 1.6% last week.

"After a brief pause, in part because of the elevated geopolitical uncertainties, potential homebuyers certainly appear to be moving forward this spring and taking advantage of the more favorable inventory conditions in most parts of the country," says Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at MBA.

The 30-year fixed rate currently sits 52 basis points below where it was during the same week a year ago.

Over that same period, purchase applications have grown by 21.2%, while refi demand has increased 50.7%.

Finally, the Commerce Department released its advance take on goods trade balance USGBAL=ECI and wholesale inventories USAWIN=ECI for March.

The gap between the value of goods imported to the United States and those exported abroad narrowed by 10.8% to $87.9 billion last month.

The value of goods stacked in the warehouses of U.S. wholesalers jumped 1.4%, handily rebounding from February's 0.1% dip.

"The run-up in inventories is worth noticing," Weinberg says. "This could signal an unexpected slowdown of purchases, and thus the start of an economic correction."

(Stephen Culp)

*****

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

US STOCKS MIXED WITH MEGACAP EARNINGS, FED ON DECK CLICK HERE

GROWTH FLEXES AGAIN AS APRIL RALLY VS VALUE NEARS A DOT-COM-ERA RECORD CLICK HERE

LOCAL ELECTIONS BRING ADDED RISK TO BRITISH MARKETS CLICK HERE

JAPAN'S TECH RALLY PUSHES NIKKEI/TOPIX RATIO TO RECORD CLICK HERE

SOFT START ON BUSY EARNINGS DAY CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES SIGNAL A SMALL BOUNCE CLICK HERE

FED SAILS INTO UNCHARTED WATERS AS POWELL BOWS OUT CLICK HERE