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GAS PRICES EATING UP TAX REFUNDS: BOFA

As the war in Iran has sent oil prices above $100 a barrel, and with it, higher gasoline prices, Bank of America economists gauge how much the "gas tax" has affected higher tax refunds.

The average price of gas is now $4.351 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data, which is up 4.6 cents from Wednesday, 34.3 cents from last month's average and 117.5 cents from last year's average.

In a note on Thursday, Bank of America U.S. economists, Aditya Bhave and Matthew Yep, said the rising gas prices have "likely blunted the long-anticipated boost to consumer spending from fiscal stimulus."

They note that tax refunds are up $43 billion on a year-over-year basis but estimate that the jump in gas prices has "already cost the consumer $19 billion," and note that since the April 15 tax deadline has passed, "the stimulus tailwind is likely to slow."

While gas prices continue to rise, BofA notes that the consumer has held up well so far, "but unless there is relief at the pump, the 'gas tax' should start to weigh increasingly on the consumer in coming months."

The firm estimates that first-quarter GDP is tracking at 2.9% quarter-over-quarter on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, "due to stronger-than-expected March durable goods, inventories, starts and trade data."

On Thursday, the advance GDP estimate came in at 2.0%, below the 2.3% estimate of economists polled by Reuters while oil eased from a four-year high.

(Chuck Mikolajczak)

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