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GLP-1 OBESITY, DIABETES DRUG MARKET TO HIT $150 BILLION IN 2030, TD COWEN SAYS

Brokerage TD Cowen has become even more bullish on the booming GLP-1 market, raising its global sales forecast for diabetes and obesity drugs in 2030 to $150 billion from $139 billion.

The global sales estimate represents a 14% compound annual growth from 2025, with an estimated 59 million patients treated in 2030, up from 46 million.

Three factors are driving the upgrade: lower U.S. prices, oral obesity drug launches and new pipeline products.

Lower prices, aided by both industry strategy and government action, are expected to expand access to treatment.

The brokerage now sees oral weight-loss pills accounting for 14% of 2030 sales, up from 11%.

"This would represent significant growth as 2025 oral share of sales was only 3% in the US and 8% rest of world."

The brokerage added, however, that momentum may not last, as oral pills have less favorable clinical profiles than injectable weight-loss drugs.

New GLP-1 drugs in the pipeline are expected to add $94 billion in global 2030 sales for Eli Lilly, up from $67 billion, according to the brokerage.

The brokerage said Lilly's Mounjaro overtook Novo's Ozempic late last year and that it sees $41 billion in 2030 sales, while Zepbound is forecast to bring in $35 billion. It expects Lilly's next-generation obesity drug retatrutide to emerge as a high-efficacy injectable with $5 billion in 2030 sales.

Novo Nordisk's outlook has dimmed somewhat, according to TD Cowen, which cut its 2030 sales forecast for the Danish drugmaker to $46 billion from $62 billion, citing pricing pressure on Ozempic and tougher competition for next-generation obesity drug CagriSema. For its Wegovy pill it expects $7 billion in 2030 sales.

For other companies, the brokerage says novel injectable drugs from Novo (cagrilintide), Lilly (eloralintide), Roche/Zealand (petrelintide), AbbVie (ABBV-295), AstraZeneca (AZD6234), and Pfizer (MET-233i) are most notable.

It estimates $8 billion in global 2030 sales for novel injectables and $1 billion in global 2030 sales for novel oral GLP-1 drugs.

(Sneha S K)

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