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HISTORY FAVORS MORE GAINS AFTER APRIL'S SURGE, CARSON GROUP SAYS

The S&P 500 is off to a solid start this year, up 8% so far, and Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, thinks the rally may still have room to run.

A big part of his optimism stems from April’s surge, with the index climbing more than 10% for its second‑best April on record. In a note out earlier this week, Detrick points out that history has often rewarded that kind of strength. Looking back at the 10 strongest Aprils ever, May finished higher nine times, while the rest of the year went on to post average gains of more than 12%.

The broader setup also looks encouraging. When the S&P 500 is already up more than 5% heading into May -- as it was this year, at 5.3% -- the market has ended the year higher in 23 of the past 25 instances. Those trends, Detrick says, support Carson Group’s decision to stay overweight equities and maintain a 12% to 15% target for the year.

Stepping back further, Detrick adds that bull markets that push beyond their third birthday often last much longer. This one is more than three years old and up over 100%, suggesting investors shouldn’t dismiss the possibility of continued gains.

He also argues that while this bull nearly ended last year by traditional definitions, the bigger picture may be even more constructive.

Detrick has long believed markets entered a secular bull phase in 2013, after finally breaking above the 2000 and 2007 highs. Despite several sharp pullbacks and bear markets since then, he says the long‑term trend remains intact. With secular bulls often lasting close to 20 years, Detrick sees few clear signs that this one is nearing its end — and remains open to the idea that it still has years left.

(Terence Gabriel)

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