Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

OPPENHEIMER FLAGS S&P 500 CORRECTION RISK, BEARISH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Oppenheimer sees a risk of a seasonal pullback in the S&P 500 .SPX to 7,000 and said investors seeking downside exposure should bet against consumer discretionary stocks rather than semiconductors.

The brokerage said the benchmark index continues to consolidate below its early-June high, with positive market rotation offset by seasonal headwinds that typically persist through the third quarter. While it sees potential for a correction, Oppenheimer views any weakness as a buying opportunity ahead of what it describes as the strongest nine-month stretch of the U.S. presidential cycle.

Despite a recent pullback in the semis space, Oppenheimer argues that semiconductors remain one of the market's strongest long-term trends and that trying to time exits and re-entries could prove costly. Instead, Oppenheimer said it has greater conviction in selling consumer discretionary stocks, maintaining that the sector's relative weakness remains intact.

Even if the broader market rebounds sooner than expected, lower-momentum consumer names are less likely to recover as quickly as higher-momentum areas such as semiconductors, it added.
"The consumer rollover is not over," the strategists wrote, describing recent gains in the sector as a tactical rally to sell.

(Joel Jose)

*****

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

HIGHER ENERGY, LOWER CHIPS AS MARKETS REACT TO GULF ESCALATION CLICK HERE

HEALTHY RALLY OR CALM BEFORE THE STORM? RECORD-LOW CORRELATIONS HAVE TRADERS WATCHING CLICK HERE

EUROPEAN LUXURY: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM Q2 EARNINGS CLICK HERE

PIPELINES COULD INSULATE OVER 60% OF HORMUZ OIL FLOWS BY 2028 CLICK HERE

INVESTORS WARY, BUT AD AGENCIES CONFIDENT IN AI'S PROMISE CLICK HERE

STOXX INCHES LOWER, ENERGY GAINS LIMIT LOSSES CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: OIL SURGE, CHIP WEAKNESS PUT EUROPE ON BACK FOOT CLICK HERE

OIL SWEPT ALONG ON TROUBLED WATERS CLICK HERE