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PREDICTION MARKETS FAVOR ANTHROPIC IN AI RACE

A new note from DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe highlights what Polymarket's prediction markets are saying about one of Wall Street's hottest themes: the AI race, both for model supremacy and IPOs.

DataTrek argues prediction markets can offer a useful real-time gauge of expectations because participants are risking capital rather than simply expressing opinions. As liquidity and participation grow, these markets are becoming another way to assess how investors are pricing future outcomes and risks.

The contrast between Anthropic and OpenAI is striking.

According to Polymarket, the odds of an Anthropic IPO by December 31 stand at 77%, despite swinging between roughly 68% and 90% over the past month. Meanwhile, the market for an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, has fallen to just 19% after peaking at 77% in early June.

Rabe says views on the AI model race may help explain the divergence.

On Polymarket's contract for which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026, Anthropic is the clear favorite at 68%. That's more than five times the odds assigned to its nearest rivals: Google at 13%, OpenAI at 11%, and xAI at 5%.

The message from prediction markets is fairly straightforward: investors increasingly see Anthropic as both the AI leader and the more likely near-term IPO candidate. At the same time, confidence that OpenAI will reach public markets anytime soon has faded sharply.

Still, Rabe sees a potential upside for public equity investors.

If OpenAI's listing is pushed into 2027 or beyond, the supply of new AI-related stock hitting public markets could be far smaller than some investors have feared. That would reduce the amount of capital competing for attention and dollars with the large-cap tech names that have dominated the AI trade, including the hyperscalers.

(Terence Gabriel)

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