Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

S&P 500 FUTURES STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, YIELDS SLIP, AFTER JOBS DATA

S&P 500 futures have edged higher after the release of the latest labor market data.

E-mini S&P 500 futures ESc1 are now up around 0.25% vs. a gain of about 0.15% just before the numbers came out.

The June headline jobs number came in at 57,000 vs. a 110,000 estimate. The May reading was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000.

The June unemployment rate was 4.2% vs. a 4.3% estimate, and a 4.3% prior print. Average hourly earnings on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis were both in line with the Reuters Poll.

Separately, initial jobless claims printed at 215,000 vs. 220,000 estimate.

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed sits on its hands and leaves its current target rate of 3.50% to 3.75% unchanged at its July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting is now around 82% vs. 69% just before the data was released. The chance that the FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points (bps) is now around 18% vs. 31%.

Interest rate probabilities based on Fed funds futures are now suggesting the implied target rate will be around 31 bps higher through December 2026 vs. about 37 bps higher just before the data came out.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield US10YT=RR is now around 4.47%. It was about 4.51% just before the data came out. The yield ended Wednesday at 4.475%.

Most S&P 500 .SPX sector SPDR ETFs are higher in premarket trading. Tech XLK.P, up nearly 0.8%, is the strongest group.

The State Street Regional Banking ETF KRE.P is up around 0.4%. The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF SOXQ.O is gaining about 2%.

Regarding the jobs data, Kay Haigh, global head and CIO of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, in London, said in emailed comments:

“Ongoing labor market stability likely leaves the FOMC focusing on upcoming inflation data to determine its appetite for tightening policy. We still see a path for the Fed to stay on hold for the rest of the year."

Haigh added, "However, any further upside surprises to inflation could convince the committee to hike sooner rather than later.”

Here is a premarket snapshot from around 8:53 a.m. ET.

(Terence Gabriel, Siddarth S)

*****

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS

GERMAN REFORM PACKAGE OFFERS GLIMMER OF HOPE CLICK HERE

WHAT TO WATCH FROM EUROPEAN SEMICONDUCTOR EARNINGS CLICK HERE

EUROPE IN THE GREEN, TECH FALTERS CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES WOBBLE BEFORE PAYROLLS CLICK HERE

SHARES PULL BACK AS MARKETS AWAIT LIKELY PAYROLLS BEAT CLICK HERE