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S&P 500 REBOUNDS INTO QUARTER-END AS BULLS EYE STRONG GAINS

The S&P 500 .SPX finally caught a break on Monday, rising 1.2% to snap a five-day losing streak. It was a solid rebound, especially with just one trading day left before the books close on the month, quarter and first half of the year.

Even with the bounce, the index is still on track to post its first monthly decline since March. Zoom out, though, and the bigger picture looks much stronger. The S&P is up about 14% for the quarter, putting it on pace for its best quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2020 — when markets were roaring back from pandemic lows. For the year so far, it’s gained 8.7%, which would mark the best first-half performance since 2024’s 14.5% surge.

Technically speaking, Monday’s move was important. After slipping below its rising 50-day moving average (DMA) on Friday for the first time since early April, the index quickly reclaimed that level. The S&P closed at 7,440.43, comfortably above the 50-DMA near 7,371 — a positive signal for momentum.

That said, the index is about 2.2% below its early June 7,609.78 record close and roughly 2.4% off its 7,620.9 intraday peak. Futures ESc1 are roughly flat ahead of Tuesday’s open, and traders are watching whether the S&P can break above its downward-sloping 20-DMA, which capped gains Monday near 7,447.

If it pushes higher, key levels to watch include a gap fill around 7,460, followed by resistance near 7,530 and 7,578. Beyond the prior highs, bulls may start eyeing a run toward 8,000.

On the flip side, slipping back below the 50-DMA — near 7,380 on Tuesday — could put the index on the back foot again. If that happens, downside levels around 7,294 and 7,238 come into focus, with a deeper drop potentially pulling the S&P toward the 7,000 zone.

(Terence Gabriel)

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