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SURPRISE! UPBEAT MACRO DATA IS EVERYWHERE

As the Iran war heads to the 100-day mark, stocks and bonds are nearly immune to the headline noise.

Equity indices, powered by AI mania, are around record highs almost everywhere, while government bond yields are well off last month's multi-year peaks.

Inflation is starting to pick up meaningfully, even in the United States, which is a net energy exporter, unlike the euro zone, China, Japan or Britain.

But for now, the bulk of the economic data is providing more pleasant surprises than nasty ones. Citi's economic surprise index for the United States, for example, just hit its highest in nearly three years .CESIUSD.

The index for Britain, in spite of the political crisis that has engulfed the country, hit its highest since August 2023 last month .CESIGBP.

With U.S. monthly payrolls just over 24 hours away, investors have several readings of the labour market that suggest Friday's number could beat expectations.

Economists polled by Reuters expect a rise of 85,000 in May, from April's 115,000-increase. Average earnings are expected to have risen at an annual rate of 3.4% last month, a touch below April's 3.6% rate.

(Amanda Cooper)

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FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS

BITCOIN BULLS RUN FOR THE EXITS CLICK HERE

GOLDMAN SEES BANK OF JAPAN HIKE THIS MONTH CLICK HERE

BROADCOM RATTLES SENTIMENT, PRIVATE-EQUITY STOCKS STABILISE CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES SLIP, GEOPOLITICS AND CHIPMAKERS IN FOCUS CLICK HERE

A CEASEFIRE TOO FAR FOR MARKETS CLICK HERE