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TRUMP PAIN INDEX HITS HIGH-ALERT LEVEL

Investors have been on edge since Monday, uncertain about whether negotiations between the United States and Iran are actually taking place and if they would yield any real progress.

That uncertainty has sharpened the focus on metrics that track shifts in market and political risk.

BCA Research has compiled a Trump pain point index, a standardized simple average of the one‑month moves in S&P 500 returns, 10‑year Treasury yields, 30‑year mortgage rates, gasoline futures, one‑year CPI swaps and the presidential approval rate.

Peaks in the indicator have typically coincided with moments when Trump stepped back from disruptive policy moves, including his aggressive tariff proposals last year, the floated idea of purchasing Greenland, and the resolution of the 2025 government shutdown.

At that time, the index neared one standard deviation; it now stands above two.

“Our index thus provides a tactical guide to timing policy shifts,” said Felix Vezina-Poirier, macro strategist at BCA Research, adding that the “index was at a low prior to the U.S. strikes on Iran.”

However, “Unlike earlier crises, the president has less control over the outcome, with Iran in the driver's seat for the next steps of de-escalation,” he adds.

Iran's military rejected President Donald Trump's assertion the U.S. was in negotiations to end the war, saying the U.S. is negotiating with itself.

(Stefano Rebaudo)

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