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US STOCK FUTURES ADD SLIGHTLY TO GAINS IN WAKE OF DATA FLOOD

The main U.S. equity index futures are modestly positive after the release of a number of economic data points including January PCE numbers, January durable goods, and the second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP. Given the periods this data covers are prior to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Middle East developments remain front and center.

E-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are now up about 0.5% on the day vs. gain of around 0.4% just before the data came out.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield US10YT=RR is now about 4.25% vs. 4.265% just before the numbers were released. The yield ended Thursday at 4.273%.

January PCE on a month-over-month basis was 0.3% vs. a 0.3% estimate. The year-over-year number was 2.8% vs. the 2.9% Reuters Poll. Core PCE on a month-over-month basis was 0.4% vs. a 0.4% estimate, while the year-over-year core print was 3.1% vs. a 3.1% Reuters Poll.

January personal income month-over-month was below the estimate, while adjusted consumption was above the Reuters Poll.

January durable goods orders came in at 0% vs. a 1.2% estimate. The ex-transports number was 0.4% vs. a 0.5% Reuters Poll.

The second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP was 0.7% vs. a 1.4% estimate.

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed sits on its hands and leaves its current target rate of 3.50%-3.75% unchanged at its March 17 to 18 FOMC meeting is unchanged at 99% vs. just before the data was released. The chance that the FOMC cuts rates by 25 basis points is 1%.

Interest rate probabilities are now pricing in a total of about 25 basis points of cuts through December 2026 vs. about 23 basis points just before the numbers came out.

All S&P 500 .SPX sector SPDR ETFs are quoted higher in premarket trading. Industrials XLI.P, up around 0.7%, is posting the biggest rise.

The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE.P is up about 0.8%.

Regarding the data, Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York, New York, said:

"Most of today's economic numbers were generally in line with expectations with the exception of durable goods orders, which was weak, and the GDP estimate, which was also weak. There's some concern about the economy from these numbers. These are numbers worth looking at and question the strength of the U.S. economy."

But Ghriskey added that "war issues in the Middle East are the most important determinant of financial markets at the moment."

The March University of Michigan preliminary sentiment is due at 10 a.m. ET. Expectations call for 55.0 vs. a prior reading of 56.6. January JOLTS job openings are expected at 6.700 million as compared to a prior print of 6.542 million.

Here is a premarket snapshot from 8:51 a.m. ET:

(Terence Gabriel, Sinéad Carew)

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