Election rules are suddenly front and center again, and the market is paying attention. After President Trump removed all remaining members of the Election Assistance Commission, investors are reassessing which stocks could be helped or hurt by fresh questions around election integrity, federal oversight, and domestic security. This article breaks down three stocks from the Election Integrity and Security Exposure screener that are directly exposed to the latest political shock, with one that could see a potential tailwind and two where the risks may now be higher. Use these insights to pressure test your own election risk playbook.

Dominion Energy (D)

Overview: Dominion Energy is a large US utility that supplies regulated electricity and natural gas to millions of customers across Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, and it also operates a contracted renewables and renewable natural gas portfolio.

Operations: Dominion Energy generates most of its US$17.4b in revenue from Dominion Energy Virginia (US$12.8b) and Dominion Energy South Carolina (US$3.6b), with smaller contributions from Contracted Energy (US$1.3b) and Corporate and Other (US$1.1b).

Market Cap: US$61.1b

Dominion Energy appears in this election risk screener because it sits at the intersection of essential grid upgrades, heavy capital needs and a complex political backdrop. The stock screens as materially undervalued on a DCF basis. However, earnings growth, while positive, is only moderate and the P/E is already slightly above the industry average, which may limit room for error. Weak free cash flow coverage of both the dividend and interest costs, combined with reliance on external funding, leaves the balance sheet exposed if financing conditions stay tight or project costs rise. In addition, merger uncertainty around the proposed NextEra deal and elevated policy risk linked to election turmoil suggest this utility may not be as defensive as headline valuations imply.

Dominion Energy’s valuation story looks tempting, but tight free cash flow and heavy external funding could be masking deeper pressure points as election risk rises. Pressure test your thesis against the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs (1 is major!)

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD)

Overview: Diebold Nixdorf helps banks and retailers run their day to day customer transactions by providing ATMs, cash recyclers, self checkout systems, point of sale hardware, and the software and services that keep those devices secure, compliant, and connected.

Operations: Diebold Nixdorf generates most of its revenue from Banking at US$2.8b, with the Retail segment contributing about US$1.1b.

Market Cap: US$2.9b

Diebold Nixdorf sits in the crosshairs of election risk, supplying US election solutions at a time when the Election Assistance Commission has been abruptly emptied out, raising questions over budgets and contract timing. While some analysts highlight earnings growth potential and the stock currently trades below certain fair value estimates, the business still leans on hardware tied to cash and branch banking at a time when digital alternatives continue to expand. Its debt levels, one off losses, and relatively new leadership team may leave limited margin for disappointment. If election uncertainty delays spending or contracts are postponed, the combination of uneven revenues and a leveraged balance sheet could make the investment case more challenging for investors who are unprepared.

Diebold Nixdorf’s leverage, hardware heavy model and election exposed contracts could be masking fragility that many investors are glossing over. Put those risks under the microscope with the 2 warning signs

Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Overview: Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense company that builds and supports fighter jets, missiles, helicopters, satellites, and related technology systems for the U.S. government and allied militaries. Its products and services are designed to provide air, sea, land, cyber, and space defense capabilities, with a long history as a key contractor to U.S. national security agencies.

Operations: Lockheed Martin generates most of its revenue from Aeronautics at US$30.5b, Missiles and Fire Control at US$15.7b, Rotary and Mission Systems at US$19.4b, and Space at US$13.6b, partly offset by US$4.1b of intersegment sales, with the United States contributing about US$53.0b of total revenue alongside international customers in Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East and other regions.

Market Cap: US$119.5b

Lockheed Martin is attracting fresh attention as election related tensions and concerns over institutional stability revive focus on national security, missile defense and cybersecurity. The company combines a large backlog across programs like F 35 and PAC 3, growing demand for munitions and space systems, and contract wins in Europe with a dividend yield around 2.6% and forecasts for earnings growth near 12.5% a year. At the same time, heavy reliance on U.S. and allied defense budgets, high leverage, recent program charges and negative earnings growth over the past year highlight how quickly margins can come under pressure. For investors who think rising polarization could support long term defense spending, the key question is whether Lockheed Martin’s balance of backlog strength and execution risk still looks attractive at today’s valuation.

Lockheed Martin’s backlog, dividend and earnings growth forecasts hint at a story investors may be underestimating, yet high leverage and recent program charges leave a key question hanging in the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.