Explore Louisiana-Pacific's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

The quarterly results for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE:LPX) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenue of US$755m surpassed estimates by 2.5%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 21% below expectations at US$0.77 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Louisiana-Pacific, is for revenues of US$2.80b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 2.9% reduction in Louisiana-Pacific's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 32% to US$2.89 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.02 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$103, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Louisiana-Pacific's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Louisiana-Pacific, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$137 and the most bearish at US$71.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Louisiana-Pacific's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 5.7% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 1.8% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Louisiana-Pacific to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Louisiana-Pacific. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Louisiana-Pacific going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.