It's been a good week for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE:LPX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.4% to US$78.51. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$664m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 36% to hit US$0.38 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following last week's earnings report, Louisiana-Pacific's 13 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$2.51b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 56% to US$1.21. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.87 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$92.62, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Louisiana-Pacific, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$107 and the most bearish at US$74.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Louisiana-Pacific's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.3% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 10.0% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.2% annually for the foreseeable future. Although Louisiana-Pacific's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$92.62, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Louisiana-Pacific. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Louisiana-Pacific analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.