Lyft (LYFT) closed FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$1,592.7 million and basic EPS of US$6.88, setting a high bar for a year in which trailing 12 month EPS reached US$6.92 and revenue stood at US$6.3 billion alongside very large year over year earnings growth and a 45% net profit margin. Over the past six quarters, the company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$1,522.7 million in Q3 2024 to between US$1,450.2 million and US$1,685.2 million across FY 2025, while basic EPS ranged from a low of US$0.01 in Q1 2025 to US$6.88 in Q4 2025. For investors, that combination of higher trailing profitability and wide EPS swings puts margins and the quality of earnings at the center of this latest result.

See our full analysis for Lyft.

With the headline numbers set, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the dominant narratives about Lyft and where the fresh data may back or challenge those stories.

45% net margin with US$2.8b trailing profit

• On a trailing 12 month basis, Lyft reports US$2.8b in net income (excluding extra items) on US$6.3b of revenue, which works out to a 45% net margin compared with 0.4% a year earlier and reflects very large reported year over year earnings growth.
• What stands out against the bearish narrative is that it assumes margins shrink from 45.0% today to 2.3% in three years, even though current results show very high profitability, while bears focus on risks like higher regulatory and labor costs that could pressure this margin profile.
  • Bears point to factors such as potential driver reclassification and higher benefits, which could add to costs, yet the latest trailing figures still show a very wide gap between current 45% margins and the low single digit margin path they outline.
  • The bearish case also talks about delayed or limited profit growth, but trailing net income of US$2.8b and very large year over year earnings growth indicate that the recent profit picture is much stronger than the cautious margin path assumes.

With that kind of margin starting point, skeptics warn there could be a long way to fall if costs move in their direction, which is why it helps to read their full case in context of the current figures 🐻 Lyft Bear Case

Share price at US$14.16 versus very low 1.9x P/E

• At a share price of US$14.16 and trailing 12 month EPS of US$6.92, Lyft trades on a P/E of 1.9x, well below the 56.2x peer average and the 40x US Transportation industry figure, while the provided DCF fair value of US$62.95 suggests a large gap between price and that modelled value.
• Supporters of the bullish narrative argue that expanding rider cohorts, partnerships and international growth could justify a higher valuation multiple over time, and the current 1.9x P/E plus the large gap to the US$62.95 DCF fair value heavily supports the idea that the market is pricing in much weaker earnings than the bullish path of growing revenue and rising margins.
  • The bullish view talks about revenue growing 14.4% a year and margins rising from 1.5% to 7.5%, which would be consistent with a higher multiple than 1.9x if those assumptions were to be reflected in future results, while today’s discount versus both peers and the DCF fair value frames how cautious the current pricing is.
  • At the same time, the data also flag a forecast of sizeable earnings decline on average over the next three years, which sits in clear tension with the bullish story of rising profits and helps explain why the market might be hesitant to assign a multiple closer to the bullish case.

If you want to see how bullish analysts connect this low P/E and the gap to DCF fair value with their long term story, it is worth reading their full narrative alongside the numbers 🐂 Lyft Bull Case

Very large 12,382.5% earnings growth, but forecasts flag declines

• Trailing 12 month earnings growth is reported at 12,382.5% year over year, as Lyft moved from small losses and modest profits to US$2.8b in net income, yet the same dataset shows consensus expectations for average earnings decline of 53.6% per year over the next three years.
• The consensus style narrative that blends bullish and bearish elements is effectively being stress tested here, because it talks about long term revenue growth and a move to 5.2% margins by around 2029, while the current combination of very large trailing earnings growth and projected multi year declines suggests analysts see recent profitability as above a more normal level rather than a straight line starting point for those long term assumptions.
  • On one side, trailing revenue growth of 9% a year and a 45% net margin give support to the idea that the business can generate significant profit, which aligns with the part of the consensus story focused on stronger operations and international scale.
  • On the other, the forecast of 53.6% average annual earnings decline, plus the mention of a US$19.9m one off loss in the trailing period, shows why the same consensus view is cautious about how durable today’s profit run rate might be and why longer term margin assumptions in the low to mid single digits are used instead of the current 45% figure.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Lyft on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With sentiment split between strong recent results and cautious forecasts, it makes sense to look through the data yourself and decide how durable this story feels, then weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

While Lyft currently reports very high margins and earnings, the projected 53.6% average annual earnings decline and cautious long term margin assumptions highlight concerns about how sustainable this profit profile might be.

If you want stocks where the focus is more on steady financial strength rather than debating whether current profits are a peak, it is worth checking out 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores today while this earnings story is fresh in your mind.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.