LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) is back in focus after reporting Q1 2026 earnings of $0.49 per share, a 48% year-over-year increase, and closing the sale of selected European olefins and polyolefins assets to AEQUITA.

LyondellBasell Industries shares closed at $62.59, with the 30 day share price return down 16.61% and the 90 day share price return down 16.77%. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return is 13.15%, suggesting recent momentum has faded after earlier gains.

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LyondellBasell’s share price has pulled back even as earnings per share and analyst expectations move higher. This raises a key question: is LYB now trading below its underlying potential, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

LyondellBasell Industries last closed at $62.59, while the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $75.82 using a 9.02% discount rate. That gap sits alongside a company that is currently loss making but expected by analysts to return to profitability over the next few years.

LyondellBasell's strategic investments in circular and advanced recycling (MoReTec-1 and plans for MoReTec-2, plus expanding renewable feedstock capacity in Europe) position the company to benefit from rising regulatory and consumer demand for recycled and sustainable plastics, improving product mix and supporting higher net margins and long-term revenue growth.

Want to see what is baked into that $75.82 figure? The narrative leans on modest revenue growth, a margin reset and a future earnings multiple below many peers. Curious which assumptions matter most and how much earnings power they imply by the late 2020s? The full narrative lays out the step by step path behind that valuation call.

Result: Fair Value of $75.82 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside narrative for LyondellBasell Industries still rests on demand and execution risks, with weak petrochemical cycles or delayed recycling projects able to reset expectations quickly.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in the mix for LyondellBasell Industries, consider acting promptly. Review the data for yourself and weigh up the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.