Maplebear (CART) is back in focus after fresh earnings projections and sentiment shifts, while its Instacart unit’s AI-powered Caper smart trolleys with UK grocer Morrisons add an extra angle to the stock’s story.

At a share price of US$45.35, Maplebear has given investors a 90 day share price return of 19.37%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is down 4.97%. This suggests that recent momentum has picked up after a softer year.

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After a 19.37% rebound over 90 days and fresh optimism around Maplebear’s earnings outlook, the real test now is simple. Does the current valuation still leave enough upside to justify the risk you are taking on?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative for Maplebear pegs fair value at about $51.30, compared with the last close at $45.35. This points to meaningful implied upside in that framework.

Deepening enterprise partnerships and a growing suite of omnichannel retailer integrations (such as Storefront, Carrot Ads, Caper Carts, Carrot Tags) are increasing stickiness with major retail chains, creating new recurring revenue streams and driving higher-margin, non-transaction-based revenues (e.g., advertising, in-store tech). This is making the business model less volatile and supporting sustainable margin expansion and earnings resilience.

Want to see what sits under that fair value for Maplebear? The narrative leans heavily on compounding revenue, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple that needs to hold up. Curious which assumptions really move the model and how sensitive that $51.30 figure is.

Result: Fair Value of $51.30 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are still clear pressure points for the Maplebear story, including higher labor and regulatory costs for gig workers, as well as tougher competition from retailer led delivery solutions.

Another View: What Maplebear’s P/E Ratio Is Telling You

While the popular narrative for Maplebear leans on a fair value of about $51.30, the current P/E of 22.4x paints a more mixed picture. It sits above the US Consumer Retailing industry at 20x, yet well below peers at 45.2x and the fair ratio estimate of 26x. That mix of relative expensiveness to the sector, but discount to peers and the fair ratio, raises a simple question: Is the market underestimating the story or already paying up for it?

For a closer look at how this valuation gap could matter for your risk and return trade off, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Reading through the mix of optimism and caution around Maplebear, how does it stack up for you today, and how quickly do you want to reach a view backed by the underlying data and commentary? To weigh both the upside and the concerns in one place, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.