Maplebear (CART) drew fresh attention after Instacart partnered with UK grocer Morrisons to roll out AI powered Caper smart trolleys at a Preston supermarket, in its first UK retail deployment.

The Caper rollout comes as Maplebear’s share price shows mixed momentum, with a 7.8% 90 day share price return and a modest 3.9% year to date share price return, contrasting with a 1 year total shareholder return that is down 2.6%.

If this kind of AI enabled retail tech interests you, it could be worth widening your watchlist to see what stands out in the 56 AI infrastructure stocks

Bulls view Maplebear’s Caper initiative and its recent revenue and net income growth as indications that the stock may be mispriced, while bears focus on the softer 1-year return. How do the current valuation numbers compare with these perspectives?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.4% Overvalued

The most followed narrative currently pegs Maplebear’s fair value at $37 per share, which sits below the last close of $45.64 and frames the latest price moves in a more cautious light.

Expansion of enterprise offerings, AI solutions and international software deployments increases fixed cost and complexity at a time when the addressable grocery technology budgets may grow more slowly. This raises the risk that revenue lags investment and drags on long term EBITDA margins.

Want to see how this plays out in the numbers? The narrative considers measured revenue growth, a step up in margins and a reduced profit multiple. This highlights which assumptions really pull that $37 fair value into place.

Result: Fair Value of $37 (OVERVALUED)

However, Maplebear’s narrative could still be challenged if online grocery demand remains firm, or if higher margin enterprise and advertising revenue supports stronger profitability than these assumptions imply.

Another View on Maplebear’s Valuation

The narrative fair value of $37 suggests Maplebear is 23.4% overvalued, yet the SWS DCF model points the other way. On that measure, CART at $45.64 is trading at a large discount to an estimated future cash flow value of $138.69. Which set of assumptions do you find more convincing?

Next Steps

Sentiment on Maplebear is clearly split, which is exactly when it helps to move fast and test the numbers yourself. To weigh the trade off between potential upside and downside, start by checking the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more Maplebear investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.