Maritime Traffic Through Hormuz Falls Sharply After Iranian Shutdown Announcement

Maritime vessels continued to move through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, though at a much lower rate, a day after Iran announced that it had closed the strategic waterway to shipping.

Transits through the strait dropped to 12 today, down from more than 21 on Saturday, according to maritime risk analytics firm Windward. The recovery in shipping traffic that began on Thursday stalled within 24 hours of the Iranian announcement.

The current traffic profile "resembles the late‑blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait," Windward posted on X. "Iran’s re-closure of Hormuz is already measurable in the data."

Iran said on Saturday that it had shut the vital shipping route again, a move that would disrupt a critical corridor for 20% of the world’s crude and liquified natural gas shipments. Iran tied the decision to what Tehran described as ceasefire breaches by the US and Israel, along with ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon. 

Lloyd’s List reported that commercial traffic continued to move through the Strait over the weekend. US Central Command said in an X post on Saturday that 55 merchant ships had transited the strait and that vessels moved more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets.  

Crude oil prices jumped on Saturday on popular perpetual futures marketplaces like Hyperliquid and Aster, after Iran announced the sudden closure. WTI jumped to $79, while Brent rose to $82. 

Trump Threatens to Take Over Strait

Today, as US and Iranian delegations met in Switzerland, President Donald Trump warned Iran that the US could become the “Guardian Angel” of the strait and take 20% of the oil.  

“We may take over the strait, if we have to,” Trump told Fox News. “If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect tolls.” 

The Iranian delegation protested with the US delegation in Switzerland in response to Trump’s recent threats, Iran’s Press TV, the country’s state‑run news channel, said on its Telegram channel. Iran will now weigh options for an appropriate response, it said. 

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on X that the strait will remain closed unless "Israel’s actions in Lebanon are brought under control." Lifting the maritime blockade alone "would not be sufficient" to restore passage through the strategic waterway, it reported, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team.  

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy also warned that all vessels should refrain from approaching the strait. Otherwise, "they will bear full responsibility for any risks and potential security consequences,” it said in a statement carried by Fars News Agency.  

The Institute for the Study of War said on X that Iran "likely calculates that it can use the strait as a tool to put greater economic pressure on the US to meet Iranian demands."

US, Iranian Delegation Meet

US Vice President JD Vance and US officials held high-stakes talks with Iran behind closed doors in Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar mediating. The two countries are hammering out the details of a peace agreement that includes a permanent end to hostilities, the reopening of the Strait within 30 days, and a 60-day nuclear negotiating window extendable by mutual consent.  

Negotiations began with a focus on the conflict in Lebanon, the strait and Iran’s nuclear program, CNN reported, citing a diplomat it didn’t identify. The sides were in "open dialogue," CNN cited the diplomat as saying. 

US Vice President JD Vance said the goal of the ongoing diplomacy is to "transform the Middle East" and create "a future where everybody can work together to promote peace and prosperity for everyone." He delivered remarks after meeting the Iranian delegation in Switzerland. 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the talks were intended to follow up on the implementation of commitments already undertaken by the other side rather than to negotiate a final agreement.