It's been a sad week for Matthews International Corporation (NASDAQ:MATW), who've watched their investment drop 15% to US$23.70 in the week since the company reported its third-quarter result. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$246m missing analyst predictions by 7.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.75 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the consensus from Matthews International's two analysts is for revenues of US$1.02b in 2027, which would reflect a small 7.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Matthews International is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.45 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.79 in 2027. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 7.9% to US$35.00.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 4.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 6.2% decline in revenue until the end of 2027. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Matthews International to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Matthews International going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.