McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD) reports first-quarter earnings Thursday before the bell, giving CEO Chris Kempczinski another shot at the Big Arch pitch after March’s viral video, where he barely bit into the burger he was promoting.

Polymarket gives MCD a 77% chance of topping the $2.75 non-GAAP consensus, and a 4% chance Kempczinski will be out as CEO by June 30th, down from 30% shortly after the video was released.

What Kalshi Predicts

The more tradeable action is on Kalshi, where contracts price the words Kempczinski will use on the 8:30 a.m. ET call.

“Big Arch” sits at 91%. McDonald’s biggest-ever burger landed in U.S. restaurants on March 3 after a viral run in the UK and Ireland, where it is now permanent. It is the centerpiece of management’s beef-quality push.

“Loyalty” is at 89%. CFO Ian Borden has called it the chain’s “single most important digital metric,” and said that U.S. customers visit 26 times a year after joining the program versus 10.5 before.

“Supply Chain” is at 76%. Kempczinski told investors in November that the chain was seeing “very, very high inflation” in beef. President Donald Trump cut tariffs on beef, coffee and other food imports later that month.

“Dividend” is at 63%. McDonald’s hiked its payout for the 49th straight year in October. One more increase in 2026 puts the chain into the Dividend King club, a designation held by fewer than 60 companies worldwide.

“Happy Meal” is at 62%. The Stranger Things: Tales From ’85 Happy Meal landed in U.S. restaurants Tuesday. It is McDonald’s second Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) collaboration this year, after March’s KPop Demon Hunters adult meals.

“Monopoly” is at 53%. The promotion drove roughly 500 million games played in 2025 and was a top loyalty acquisition driver. The double-digit move on a near-locked contract has the look of someone with a view.

“Hot Honey” sits at 25%, despite UBS analyst Dennis Geiger flagging the Hot Honey Sauce as a key Q1 U.S. traffic driver.

“DoorDash” is at 20%, despite DoorDash Inc. (NASDAQ:DASH) reporting its own Q1 print after the close today and the McDelivery partnership now spanning 29 countries. Kempczinski tends to say “delivery” rather than name the partner.

What You Need To Watch

MCD trades around $283, down 7% year to date and 17% off its 52-week high. Options pricing implies a 3.5% post-earnings move, nearly double the four-quarter average.

Wall Street is split. BTIG has a Buy rating and a $370 price target. Mizuho cut its target to $310 from $325 last week. UBS expects a Q1 miss but kept a Buy and a $365 target on the strength of the global brand.

The call is Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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