Shareholders in Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 21% to US$411 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were US$707m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$4.28 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 10%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Medpace Holdings after the latest results.

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Medpace Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$2.78b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.4% to US$16.99. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.12 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$447, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Medpace Holdings analyst has a price target of US$520 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$329. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Medpace Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Medpace Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Medpace Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Medpace Holdings' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Medpace Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Medpace Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Medpace Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.