As you might know, MeiraGTx Holdings plc (NASDAQ:MGTX) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 98% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.57. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering MeiraGTx Holdings provided consensus estimates of US$49.5m revenue in 2026, which would reflect a substantial 38% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.65 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$50.4m and losses of US$1.94 per share in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed MeiraGTx Holdings'future looks a little different to the past, with a favorable reduction in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$28.25, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on MeiraGTx Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$50.00 and the most bearish at US$19.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MeiraGTx Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 47% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 22% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - MeiraGTx Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that MeiraGTx Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MeiraGTx Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for MeiraGTx Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that MeiraGTx Holdings is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.