The second-quarter results for MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$295m were in line with what the analysts predicted, MGIC Investment surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.86 per share, a notable 13% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, MGIC Investment's four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$1.19b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 6.5% to US$3.23 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.08 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on MGIC Investment's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target rose 6.3% to US$30.60, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MGIC Investment at US$35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting MGIC Investment is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that MGIC Investment's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around MGIC Investment's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple MGIC Investment analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.