Milliman study: FICO Score 10T tops VantageScore 4.0 in first-time buyer risk prediction

Fair Isaac Corporation

Fair Isaac Corporation

FICO

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  • Fair Isaac published an independent Milliman analysis finding FICO Score 10T was the most predictive credit score for first-time homebuyer mortgage risk, outperforming VantageScore 4.0.
  • The study analyzed nearly 20 million U.S. mortgages from 2011 through 2023, spanning GSE, FHA, and overall mortgage loans.
  • FICO Score 10T showed the largest performance gap in FHA first-time homebuyer loans, beating VantageScore 4.0 by more than 10%.
  • The analysis also found FICO Score 10T placed more first-time buyers into the highest credit score bands than VantageScore 4.0, implying broader access to top pricing tiers.
  • FICO Score 10T uses trended credit data, with rental payment history when available, to sharpen risk separation between borrowers who pay as agreed and those who default.


Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Fair Isaac Corporation published the original content used to generate this news brief via Business Wire (Ref. ID: 202605181200BIZWIRE_USPR_____20260518_BW761168) on May 18, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.

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